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DIPLOMACY, POLITICS, AND POLICY — UP CLOSE

Trump Sees a Deal, Putin Sees a Russian Victory

- October 24, 2026, 06:16 AM ET

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to view US President Donald Trump’s efforts to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to secure a strategic victory for Moscow rather than a compromise to end the conflict.

Trump’s approach rests on the belief that ending the war would save thousands of lives, ease sanctions on Russia and restore profitable trade. However, Putin remains determined to pursue his war objectives despite the potential economic benefits of a settlement, according to a CNN analysis.

The differences became apparent during a recent meeting in St Petersburg between Putin and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy. Putin reportedly expressed interest in a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US, European and NATO officials in Norway. A senior Kremlin aide later said the discussions had little practical value in resolving the conflict.

Putin’s continued insistence on securing control over the entire Donbas region and influencing Ukraine’s future security arrangements has further complicated negotiations.

Washington may nevertheless have hoped that economic concessions would encourage Moscow to compromise. Last week, Trump lifted restrictions on Russian diesel exports in a move aimed at helping lower fuel prices ahead of the US midterm elections.

Trump subsequently announced a unilateral energy ceasefire intended to halt Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. The arrangement was followed by competing accusations, disruptions to intelligence-sharing and Trump’s call for a change in Ukraine’s leadership — developments that could benefit the Kremlin.

Moscow, however, appears to interpret such concessions as evidence that its strategy toward Washington is working. During the St Petersburg meeting, Putin welcomed the diesel arrangement and proposed expanding cooperation in areas including fertiliser exports, energy and data centres.

Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, said discussions had covered potential joint projects in data centres and the energy sector.

Putin also used diplomatic gestures to strengthen ties with Trump. Ahead of the meeting, Russia released 74-year-old American citizen Stephen Hubbard, who had been detained since 2022. Witkoff praised the release as a humanitarian gesture.

A statement on Trump’s Truth Social platform said the United States had offered nothing in exchange for Hubbard’s release, describing the move as unprecedented.

However, the release may have served a broader strategic purpose by creating an opportunity for Putin to gain recognition from Trump without making significant concessions over Ukraine.

For Kyiv, the prospect of Washington and Moscow improving relations while Russia maintains its territorial demands raises concerns that diplomatic engagement could strengthen the Kremlin’s position rather than bring the war closer to a lasting settlement.

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