Israel could face a period of extreme instability, including the risk of civil conflict or internal breakdown, amid deepening political divisions and social polarization, according to a reported classified assessment by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
The assessment, titled “Fracture From Within,” was reportedly prepared in August by the CIA’s semi-autonomous Red Cell, a unit tasked with examining unconventional and alternative risks. The findings were reported by Drop Site News and subsequently cited by Middle East Eye.
The assessment reportedly warns of growing tensions ahead of Israel’s October 27 general election, in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to preserve his political future.
One of the most divisive issues is the longstanding exemption from compulsory military service enjoyed by ultra-Orthodox Jewish men studying in religious seminaries, or yeshivas. While hundreds of thousands of reservists have been mobilized amid Israel’s wars in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran, pressure has intensified to end the exemption as the conflicts continue.
Netanyahu’s coalition government has struggled to pass legislation governing ultra-Orthodox military recruitment. The dispute has contributed to protests and arrests of young men accused of evading military service, further straining relations with Netanyahu’s long-standing ultra-Orthodox allies, United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and the Shas party.
The CIA assessment also reportedly warns that the return of thousands of armed soldiers and reservists to civilian life after the wars could exacerbate domestic tensions. Reservists in Israel may retain firearms at home, while carrying weapons openly is relatively common.
Violence by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, rising food prices and increased military expenditure are also identified as factors that could deepen social and economic pressure.
The assessment reportedly predicts that neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition could secure the 61 seats required to form a government after the election, potentially prolonging political uncertainty.
The report also identifies potential economic risks, including reduced investment by foreign technology and artificial intelligence companies and a failure by regional countries to normalize relations with Israel.
However, the assessment reportedly did not include potential discontent among Israel’s Palestinian citizens, who make up roughly one-fifth of the population.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Supreme Court reportedly signaled last Friday that it could disqualify a Palestinian political candidate from the election. The candidate subsequently withdrew, while the court lifted restrictions on four other political parties.
The reported CIA assessment presents a scenario of heightened internal fragmentation rather than a prediction that civil war is inevitable.
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