A striking shift is emerging in the US labor market, with young workers without college degrees enjoying some of their strongest employment prospects in decades while university graduates face increasing difficulties finding jobs.
An analysis by the Burning Glass Institute found that the unemployment rate among workers aged 22 to 34 who have not completed college is now at its lowest level in two decades.
Gad Levanon, chief economist at the institute, said the employment trends for college graduates and non-graduates had historically moved in the same direction during both economic expansions and downturns. That pattern, however, has now changed significantly.
The divergence is largely being driven by changes in labor supply and demand. The retirement of older workers and lower levels of immigration have contributed to shortages of workers in skilled trades and physically demanding occupations.
At the same time, the number of young people with higher education has continued to rise, while companies are increasingly using artificial intelligence to perform some entry-level tasks, intensifying competition among graduates in fields such as science, technology and business.
Historically, jobs that require physical labor and an on-site presence have tended to have lower unemployment rates. Employment opportunities have increased in sectors including construction, manufacturing, restaurants, retail and security.
US data released for August showed that of the 162,000 jobs added to the economy, more than one-third—or 59,000—were in food and beverage services.
By contrast, unemployment among college graduates aged 22 to 34 has deteriorated to levels seen only during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2007-09 global financial crisis over the past two decades.
Zachary Blackmon, who graduated from the University of Cincinnati with a degree in international business, said he submitted around 70 job applications but received only three interview invitations.
After failing to secure a job, he enrolled in an MBA programme in the hope of improving his prospects.
“Students like us, who have followed all the rules, are still facing a difficult challenge,” Blackmon said, expressing hope that an MBA would open new opportunities.
Despite the worsening prospects for some young graduates, college-educated workers still have a lower overall unemployment rate. The average unemployment rate for degree holders stands at 2.7%, compared with 4.7% for those without degrees.
Levanon advised recent graduates to broaden their job searches by remaining flexible about location and position, saying greater flexibility could improve their chances of finding employment.
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