A powerful El Niño event could cause an estimated 451,000 excess heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and the end of February 2027, according to a study released by the Climate Impact Lab, a research group based at the University of Chicago.
The study warns that the unusually strong El Niño is contributing to record heat, severe drought, wildfires and water shortages across parts of the world. The effects could be particularly severe in poorer countries already struggling with climate-related food insecurity and higher energy costs.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and a co-author of the study, said the effects of the current El Niño are expected to ease by February, but elevated heat risks could persist beyond that period and potentially be felt into next summer.
The researchers said extreme heat poses a disproportionately greater threat in regions that are already hot and have limited resources to protect vulnerable populations.
“If you already live in a hot region, a few more degrees of warming can become many times more dangerous to life,” Greenstone said.
Wealthier countries generally have greater access to air conditioning, reliable water supplies and advanced healthcare systems, while poorer regions often have fewer resources to cope with extreme heat.
Developing countries face greatest risk
The study analysed local temperature estimates from more than 24,000 regions worldwide and examined how changes in temperature affect mortality.
Researchers compared average heat-related mortality over the past three decades with projected mortality during the El Niño period from June 2026 through the end of February 2027.
The Sahel region of Africa, along the southern edge of the Sahara, is projected to face the highest toll, with an estimated 66,800 additional deaths linked to El Niño-driven heat.
Parts of South and Southeast Asia and Latin America are also identified as high-risk areas.
The study estimates that about 19,400 additional deaths could occur across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia combined. Indonesia could see around 19,300, India 15,800 and Brazil 13,300 additional deaths.
Early action could save lives
The researchers recommended a range of measures to reduce the impact of extreme heat, including early-warning systems, cooling centres, free drinking-water stations, stronger protections for outdoor workers and increased hospital capacity.
Governments were also urged to monitor older people and others particularly vulnerable to extreme heat and to prepare emergency funding and resources before temperatures reach dangerous levels.
Climate expert Anjan Tiwari, who was not involved in the study, said the findings should be viewed as a call for action rather than a reason for panic. He noted that having an extreme-heat response plan is different from ensuring that the necessary resources and funding are actually available and implemented on the ground.
El Niño amplifies climate change-driven heat
El Niño is a natural climate pattern, but scientists say its effects are occurring against a backdrop of human-driven global warming.
According to the Climate Impact Lab, global land temperatures during the current El Niño could be around 1.2°C higher than in a normal year, producing about 44% more days of extreme heat.
The researchers said the current event offers a glimpse of the type of extreme conditions that could become more common as the planet continues to warm.
They said the findings also provide policymakers with an opportunity to identify locations where immediate measures could prevent thousands of deaths and strengthen preparedness for future extreme-heat events.
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