Japan’s crude oil imports have fallen sharply following the ongoing conflict involving Iran and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to an analysis published by Nikkei Asia based on tanker-tracking data from European analytics firm Kpler.
The report indicates that Japan’s crude oil imports declined by 47 percent between March and May 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. The drop has been driven largely by restrictions on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy transit routes.
Shipments of crude oil from the Middle East are expected to decrease by 48 percent during the March–May period, while overall global oil exports are projected to fall by only 10 percent. Among Gulf producers, Saudi Arabia’s exports are forecast to decline by 29 percent and those of the United Arab Emirates by 33 percent. Exports from Kuwait and Iraq could fall by more than 90 percent.
Iran, which effectively gained control over shipping movements in the Strait of Hormuz after the outbreak of the conflict, maintained relatively stable export levels in March and April. However, its exports are expected to plunge by 87 percent in May due to a U.S. naval blockade.
Saudi Arabia has attempted to offset disruptions by redirecting some oil exports through the Red Sea. Nevertheless, its overall export capacity remains below pre-war levels. The alternative route requires tankers to pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where the presence of Iran-backed Houthi forces continues to pose security risks to commercial shipping.
Japan has been among the countries hardest hit by the supply shock. Before the conflict, around 90 percent of Japan’s crude oil imports came from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. By May, that share had fallen to approximately 60 percent. During the same period, the share of U.S. crude oil in Japan’s import mix rose from about 2 percent to more than 20 percent.
The sharp decline in imports has highlighted Japan’s vulnerability to disruptions in Middle Eastern energy supplies. In late March, Tokyo began releasing oil from its strategic petroleum reserves. Officials say the country still holds enough reserves to cover more than 200 days of domestic consumption.
The future of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, with analysts warning that tensions in the Middle East could persist for an extended period. As a result, Japan is increasingly seeking to diversify its energy sources and reduce dependence on the Gulf region.
Elsewhere in Asia, Vietnam recorded the steepest decline in oil imports, with volumes falling by 51 percent, while Malaysia’s imports dropped by 43 percent. Although both countries have sought alternative supplies from the United States and Africa, those efforts have not fully compensated for the shortfall.
China, the world’s largest oil importer, is estimated to have reduced its imports by 18 percent during the March–May period. India, the world’s second-largest importer in 2025, saw imports decline by 3 percent and has moved quickly to increase purchases from Russia and Venezuela.
In contrast, Europe has managed to maintain more stable oil supplies due to its diversified sources, including the North Sea, the United States, North Africa, and the Caspian region. During the March–May period, oil imports increased by 34 percent in Greece, 9 percent in the United Kingdom, and 7 percent in Spain.
The developments underscore the far-reaching impact of the Iran conflict on global energy markets and the growing importance of supply diversification for energy-importing nations.
