South Asia could be heading toward a major food crisis as ongoing disruptions in global energy supplies threaten fertilizer production and agricultural stability across the region, experts have warned.
The concerns stem largely from instability surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global transit route for oil and natural gas. Analysts say the impact extends far beyond energy markets, with potential consequences for food production, crop yields, and household food security in countries heavily dependent on imported fuel and fertilizer.
Modern agriculture relies extensively on energy—not only for transportation and irrigation, but also for the production of fertilizers. Nitrogen-based fertilizers, in particular, require natural gas as a key component in manufacturing. Any disruption in gas supplies or spikes in fuel prices can therefore quickly affect fertilizer availability and costs.
South Asian countries remain highly dependent on the Gulf region for fertilizer and energy imports. In 2024, India imported more than half of its fertilizer supplies from Gulf countries. Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal also rely significantly on imported fertilizer to sustain agricultural production.
According to regional estimates, India uses around 60 million tonnes of fertilizer nutrients annually, Pakistan approximately 10 million tonnes, and Bangladesh about 6 million tonnes. Countries like Nepal face even greater risks due to their limited domestic production capacity.
Agricultural experts warn that fertilizer shortages can severely reduce crop yields if nutrients are not applied during critical growth stages. Research shows wheat production can fall by more than half without adequate nitrogen use, while insufficient phosphorus can reduce rice yields by nearly 30 percent.
The situation has raised fears of a repeat of the 2007–2008 global food crisis, when soaring oil prices sharply increased fertilizer costs and drove global food prices upward. During that period, fertilizer prices nearly tripled and global food prices rose by more than 50 percent.
Bangladesh was among the countries hit hardest, with rice prices increasing by more than 60 percent in some cases. Across Asia and Africa, rising food prices pushed more than 100 million people into extreme poverty.
Experts say the current crisis highlights the deep interconnection between energy, water, and food systems. They argue that governments must no longer treat energy shocks as isolated economic events.
To reduce risks, specialists are urging South Asian governments to stabilize fertilizer supplies through strategic reserves, diversified import sources, and stronger regional cooperation. Long-term recommendations include expanding domestic fertilizer production and improving storage and distribution infrastructure.
Analysts caution that if current supply disruptions continue, South Asia’s next major crisis may not remain limited to the energy sector but could evolve into a widespread food emergency.
