A rapidly strengthening in the Pacific Ocean is raising fresh concerns among climate scientists, who warn that the phenomenon could evolve into a rare “Super El Niño” later this year and trigger extreme weather events across the globe.
According to the latest update from the (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center, there is now a two-thirds probability that the current El Niño event could become “strong” or “very strong” by the end of the year.
El Niño is a natural climate cycle that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than average. The warming disrupts atmospheric circulation patterns and creates chain reactions in weather systems worldwide, often causing severe droughts in some regions and devastating floods in others.
Scientists say the current event is developing much faster than previously anticipated. While forecasters had expected neutral conditions to continue through June, new projections indicate that El Niño’s early phase could begin as soon as next month.
Meteorologists are closely monitoring massive pools of warm water rising toward the ocean surface in the Pacific, a key indicator that the phenomenon is intensifying. NOAA estimates there is now a 96 percent chance that El Niño conditions will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Climate experts warn that if ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above average, the event would qualify as a “Super El Niño” — one of the strongest categories on record.
The probability of such an extreme event occurring between November and January has increased from 25 percent last month to 33 percent, according to updated climate models. Some projections suggest the 2026 event could become the most powerful since modern record-keeping began in 1950.
Previous Super El Niño episodes in 1972, 1982, 1997, and 2015-16 caused widespread global disruptions, including deadly heatwaves, droughts, flooding, crop failures, and economic losses.
Scientists also fear the phenomenon could push global temperatures to unprecedented levels. NOAA has already indicated that 2026 is likely to rank among the five warmest years ever recorded, even before El Niño reaches full strength.
The impacts are expected to vary across regions. El Niño typically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean but strengthens cyclones in the central and eastern Pacific, increasing risks for places such as Hawaii and the southwestern United States.
In South Asia, including and neighboring countries, weaker monsoon rainfall could lead to drought conditions and agricultural challenges. Parts of southern Africa may also experience severe dryness, while some regions in East and Southeast Asia could face warmer and drier winters.
Climate scientists caution that although El Niño patterns are broadly predictable, local impacts can still vary significantly, making preparation and monitoring crucial in the months ahead.
