Dhaka | May 3, 2026
Bangladesh’s export sector posted a sharp rise in April, but industry leaders and analysts caution that the growth is largely artificial and may not signal a sustained recovery in global demand.
Data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) show export earnings reached nearly $4 billion in April, up about 33 percent year-on-year. However, cumulative exports for the July–April period of the 2025–26 fiscal year totaled $39.40 billion, down roughly 2 percent compared to the same period a year earlier.
Backlog Clearance, Not Demand Recovery
Exporters say the April surge was primarily driven by the clearance of backlogged shipments delayed in March due to the extended Eid al-Fitr holidays, which disrupted factory operations and logistics.
Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA), said the growth reflects a “base effect” rather than increased order volumes. “There has been no significant rise in new orders or buyer pressure,” he said, warning against interpreting the data as a sign of recovery.
A similar view was expressed by Mahmududdin Rubel, additional managing director of Denim Expert Limited, who noted that demand conditions in key markets remain subdued.
Fragile Outlook for May
Exporters are bracing for further disruption in May, when another extended holiday period could affect production and shipment schedules. Industry participants warn that this could result in renewed volatility in monthly export figures.
External demand also remains weak amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a sluggish post-recession recovery in major markets in Europe and the United States.
Mixed Performance in Garments
The ready-made garment (RMG) sector, which accounts for the bulk of Bangladesh’s exports, presents a mixed picture. Between July and April, RMG exports fell 2.82 percent year-on-year to $31.72 billion.
However, April saw a notable rebound, with exports rising 31.21 percent to $3.14 billion. Knitwear exports reached $1.70 billion (up 30.02 percent), while woven garments totaled $1.44 billion (up 32.65 percent).
Despite the strong monthly performance, industry leaders caution that the gains may not be sustainable without a broader recovery in global demand and improvements in domestic production capacity.
Sectoral Divergence
Other export sectors showed divergent trends. Leather and leather goods exports rose 5.95 percent year-on-year to $980 million during the July–April period, with April alone recording a 35.67 percent increase.
Agro-processed products, meanwhile, declined overall during the fiscal period but posted a sharp 65 percent increase in April, a surge analysts attribute to seasonal factors rather than structural growth.
Structural Challenges Persist
Analysts say Bangladesh’s export sector continues to face a combination of external and domestic pressures. Weak consumer demand in Western markets and geopolitical instability are constraining export growth.
At home, persistent gas and electricity shortages, high borrowing costs, and logistical inefficiencies are raising production costs and delaying shipments.
Mahmud Hasan Khan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), emphasized the need for policy support. “Without energy security, affordable financing and a stronger supply chain, maintaining competitiveness will be difficult,” he said, noting that some exporters are increasingly relying on costly air freight to meet delivery deadlines.
Financing Pressures
Exporters also point to tightening financial conditions as a major constraint. Lending rates of 12–14 percent, combined with rising non-performing loans and liquidity shortages in the banking sector, are straining industrial operations.
Industry representatives are calling for expanded refinancing facilities and targeted low-interest funding to sustain export competitiveness.
Outlook: Uncertain Recovery Path
Economists caution that April’s export performance should be viewed as a temporary adjustment rather than the start of a durable recovery.
With continued uncertainty in global demand and potential disruptions from domestic holidays, Bangladesh’s export trajectory is likely to remain uneven in the coming months.
The sector remains in a fragile recovery phase, with its near-term outlook hinging on both external market conditions and the resolution of domestic structural constraints.
