The ongoing Iran-related conflict could push more than 32 million people into extreme poverty worldwide, according to a warning from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), as reported by The Guardian.
The UN development agency said the global economy is already under pressure from rising energy costs, food insecurity, and slowing growth. It cautioned that the war is reversing years of development progress, with the harshest impact expected in developing nations.
UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner warned that conflict-driven economic shocks often have long-lasting consequences, even after fighting stops. He said that people who had previously escaped poverty risk being pushed back into it due to rising living costs and instability.
According to the report, tensions and disruptions in global oil and gas supply—especially through critical routes like the Strait of Hormuz—have already driven energy prices sharply upward. This has affected transportation, fertilizer supply chains, and global food markets.
The UNDP outlined three possible scenarios for the crisis. In the worst-case projection, prolonged energy disruption combined with sustained high prices could push around 32.5 million people below the international poverty line, defined as living on less than $8.30 per day.
The report also highlights that around half of those newly impoverished would come from 37 energy-importing countries across Africa, Asia, small island states, and parts of the Gulf region.
The UNDP urged coordinated global action, including targeted cash support for vulnerable populations. However, it warned against broad subsidies, saying they are financially unsustainable and often benefit wealthier households unnecessarily.
The report comes at a time when several Western countries have been reducing foreign aid budgets due to rising defense spending and domestic fiscal pressures, raising further concerns about support for developing economies.
