China is facing significant energy challenges following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, compounding disruptions to two of Beijing’s key oil suppliers within months.
In less than two months, U.S. President Donald Trump has effectively sidelined two of China’s close strategic partners. After the reported detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, the reported death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has further destabilized Beijing’s energy security calculations in both South America and the Middle East.
According to data analytics firm Kpler, Venezuela and Iran export the majority of their crude oil to China. Last year, roughly half of Venezuela’s oil exports and nearly all of Iran’s exported crude were shipped to China. The Columbia University Global Energy Policy Center estimates that about 15 percent of China’s total oil imports come from these two countries combined.
Rob Thummel, portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital, said China could emerge as one of the biggest economic losers if instability in Iran deepens. He noted that China produces far less oil than it consumes, making it heavily dependent on imports. Higher oil prices could slow economic growth, but ensuring stable supply remains Beijing’s top priority.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi described the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran as “unacceptable,” condemning the killing of a sovereign leader and what he called incitement to regime change. However, Beijing has so far refrained from publicly outlining the potential economic consequences of the escalating conflict.
Concerns are also mounting over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil shipments from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to global markets. Iran controls the northern side of the strait and has previously threatened to block the waterway during periods of heightened tension with the United States.
Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency reported that a tanker was attacked and sinking on Sunday during what it described as an “unauthorized passage” through the strait. Analysts warn that any closure or major disruption in Hormuz could trigger a severe global energy crisis.
