Bangladesh is at a critical political crossroads. Repeated dominance by the Awami League (AL), combined with the sidelining of credible opposition, has eroded public trust in democratic processes and created space for far-right voices to grow. When political competition is absent, ruling powers often rely on tacit arrangements with fringe or extremist forces to maintain control. This pattern, if continued, risks transforming temporary political authority into long-term structural distortion of governance.
The author is an anthropologist and public intellectual, recognized for scholarship on democratic institutions, electoral politics, and governance in South Asia. Research draws on concepts of political exclusion, hegemony, and subaltern agency, connecting empirical analysis to broader theoretical frameworks in political sociology and decolonial studies.
Historical and theoretical context
The consequences of political exclusion are evident in Bangladesh’s history. In February 1996, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) held a general election boycotted by most major opposition parties. Voter turnout was only 21%, and the BNP claimed 278 of 300 parliamentary seats — widely seen as lacking legitimacy. Public protests prompted the creation of a neutral caretaker government, which conducted a June 1996 election with ~75% participation, allowing meaningful competition between BNP and AL (Al Jazeera, 2024).
The AL consolidated dominance after 2009, particularly following the 2011 abolition of the caretaker government system, undermining electoral neutrality (HRMARS, 2024). The 2014 and 2018 elections saw opposition boycotts or severe restrictions; in 2014, nearly half the parliamentary seats were uncontested (The Daily Star, 2018). The 2024 election repeated this trend, with 40% turnout and minimal opposition participation (The Guardian, 2024).
The rise of far-right influence and theoretical lens
Political exclusion aligns with Antonio Gramsci’s concept of hegemony, where dominant actors maintain control not only through formal power but by shaping political space and consent. Research indicates far-right activity in Bangladesh has increased sharply in areas where opposition is marginalized (Global Extremism Monitor, 2023). Between 2014 and 2024, politically motivated extremism rose over 40%, disproportionately affecting opposition supporters and independent journalists. Without credible opposition, fringe actors gain informal leverage, reinforcing their influence on governance.
Recent governments and their impact
Between 2009–2024, Sheikh Hasina’s government limited political competition, weakened civil liberties, and reduced institutional autonomy (Freedom House, 2024). Protests in 2024 highlighted the regime’s legitimacy deficit (The Diplomat, 2025). The interim government (2024–present) further restricted opposition, banning AL activities under anti-terrorism laws (Dhaka Tribune, 2025), which risks empowering fringe actors (Opposition International, 2025).
How exclusion empowers extremists
Vacuum politics: When credible opposition is sidelined, a political vacuum emerges, creating space for fringe and extremist groups to negotiate directly with ruling powers. These actors leverage the absence of competition to secure disproportionate influence over policy agendas, often exploiting institutional weaknesses and public disillusionment. Studies indicate that areas with limited opposition engagement exhibit higher rates of local radical mobilization (Global Extremism Monitor, 2023).
Policy capture: Exclusion of mainstream political forces allows fringe actors to shape governance in ways that benefit their ideological or financial interests. This phenomenon, referred to in political sociology as informal policy capture, undermines democratic accountability. Empirical evidence from Bangladesh suggests that policies relating to social regulation, education, and local governance have increasingly reflected the agendas of marginal extremist groups when opposition participation is minimal (HRMARS, 2024).
Erosion of pluralism: The deliberate reduction of political choices leads to a polarized citizenry, where radical positions are amplified by both social and digital networks. Anthropological studies demonstrate that communities experiencing sustained political exclusion often exhibit heightened susceptibility to extremist narratives, as limited channels for legitimate dissent drive citizens toward alternative, radicalized forms of expression (International IDEA, 2023).
Legitimacy deficits: Governments that rely on informal alliances with fringe actors erode their institutional legitimacy. Such arrangements bypass formal democratic processes and weaken public trust in state institutions. Evidence from Bangladesh’s recent elections indicates that these legitimacy deficits correlate with increased voter apathy, civil unrest, and the emboldening of far-right elements, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of exclusion and extremism (Freedom House, 2024).
Inclusive elections: A theoretical and practical imperative
Drawing from subaltern theory, marginalized voices must be included to ensure political legitimacy. Inclusive elections foster trust, reduce far-right leverage, and affirm governance accountability (International IDEA, 2023). Policies that enable participation from all major parties, safeguard independent institutions, and uphold civil liberties are critical for sustainable democracy.
Prompt and actionable steps
Leading political analysts and scholars emphasize immediate measures to counter the cycle of exclusion and extremism. Prompt action is essential to prevent further consolidation of fringe power.
Immediate restoration of competition: Ensure free and fair participation for all major parties, including AL and BNP, with international observers to guarantee transparency (Transparency International, 2024).
Institutional strengthening: Grant full autonomy to the Election Commission, judiciary, and media regulatory bodies, preventing political interference and ensuring independent oversight (The Asia Foundation, 2023).
Reject fringe negotiations: Both current and transitional governments must publicly renounce informal deals with extremist groups, reinforcing state legitimacy and public confidence.
Citizen engagement programs: Implement nationwide civic education campaigns to inform citizens about the dangers of exclusion and radicalization, leveraging both community and digital platforms (UNDP Bangladesh, 2023).
Immediate credible elections: Schedule inclusive, monitored elections with active participation from all major political parties to restore democratic legitimacy, rebuild public trust, and reduce the space for far-right actors.
Conclusion
Bangladesh’s political history — from the 1996 BNP elections to the 2024 AL-dominated vote — demonstrates that excluding credible opposition fuels far-right influence and undermines democracy. Analysts agree that inclusive politics, competitive elections, and strong institutions are essential safeguards against extremist negotiation becoming normalized. Prompt implementation of these measures is critical to prevent instability, polarization, and the erosion of democratic legitimacy.
Writer: Dr. Snigdha Rezwana, Associate Professor of Anthropology, Jahangirnagar University
