The 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran has highlighted the limitations of China’s diplomatic capacity and influence in the Middle East, analysts say. As the conflict began, China promptly called for peace. The following day, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned Israel’s attack as a “violation of international law.” President Xi Jinping also urged for conflict resolution and proposed an immediate ceasefire at the UN Security Council. China collaborated with Russia and Pakistan in this effort.However, despite this activism, experts believe it has become evident that China’s role in the strategic balance of the Middle East remains relatively weak. According to Qatar-based media outlet Al Jazeera, the Israel-Iran conflict not only triggered new tensions in the region but also prompted a reassessment of the real power held by major global players.While China demonstrated its intent for global leadership by calling for peace, its regional influence remains limited due to its lack of military presence and the complex reality of its dual relations. Advancing its role in the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East is difficult for China—and staying silent could prove even costlier.Why Was China Concerned?Evangeline Cheng, a researcher at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore, said that unlike the U.S., China bases its foreign policy not on ideals but on strategic realism. Its primary goal is to safeguard economic interests.China has extensive economic investments in the Middle East. It is involved in Israel’s tech sector and has infrastructural partnerships as part of the Belt and Road Initiative with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq, Egypt, and the UAE. The region is also crucial for China’s energy security, as it imports more than half of its crude oil from there.Alam Saleh, senior lecturer in Iranian Studies at the Australian National University, noted that war and security crises affect not only investments and trade but also energy prices and supply chains globally. China prefers a peaceful environment and consistently rejects military solutions.Professor John Gong of the University of International Business and Economics in China stated that China’s main concern was the volatility in oil prices. “If oil prices skyrocket, it will threaten China’s energy security,” he said.Limits of Diplomatic EffortsConsidering China’s close ties with Iran and its economic stakes, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently urged Beijing to discourage Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz.While this appeal acknowledges China’s temporary diplomatic influence, experts say Beijing’s overall ability to “extract benefits” remains limited.Cheng said China wants to portray itself as a responsible global power by pursuing peace, but it has very limited actual influence. A lack of military capability, insufficient political leverage, and mutual distrust with Israel all contribute to China’s limited effectiveness.Still, China has achieved strategic successes in the past. In 2023, it brokered the normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and in July 2024, helped reach a consensus between Hamas and Fatah over Gaza’s governance framework. However, analysts note that these successes were heavily aided by Oman and Iraq.China’s Contradictory RealityWilliam Yang, a Northeast Asia analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said that China’s diplomatic limitations have become clear due to its long-term strategic agreement with Iran and the close ties between the U.S. and Israel.In 2021, China and Iran signed a 25-year strategic partnership, making Iran a key member of both the Belt and Road Initiative and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Iran also participated in Chinese naval exercises recently. These partnerships have deepened Israel’s mistrust of China.Yang added that while China aims to act as a global power capable of establishing peace, its ability is diminished when it has close ties with conflict parties.Security by the U.S., Moral High Ground by ChinaAccording to Yang, the U.S. will continue to serve as the main guarantor of security in the Middle East, while China will seek to strengthen its economic ties by leveraging that system.He further noted that U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have given China an opportunity to claim the moral high ground. While the U.S. takes military action, China positions itself as a restrained and responsible global actor.
