On May 10, following four days of military clashes, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. While he initially avoided mentioning Kashmir, he later offered to mediate on the long-standing dispute.
India Rejects Mediation
New Delhi dismissed the offer, maintaining its long-standing position that Kashmir is a bilateral matter with Pakistan. Since the Modi government revoked Article 370 and downgraded Jammu and Kashmir into a union territory in August 2019, India has claimed there is no longer any dispute over the region. The Ministry of External Affairs reiterated on May 13 that no foreign involvement is acceptable.
Muted Response from Kashmir
Despite the international attention, political voices from Kashmir have remained largely silent, likely due to restrictions on free expression. Local scholars note that while international efforts are generally welcomed by Kashmiris, there’s little hope such interventions will change India’s firm stance.
Analysts: No Shift in India’s Approach Likely
Experts suggest the Indian government is unlikely to soften its “muscular” security-first policy. “Unless the U.S. puts serious pressure on New Delhi, nothing will change,” a Srinagar-based analyst told Scroll, suggesting Trump’s motivation might be driven more by trade interests than regional peace.
Trump’s latest remarks came just days after he criticized Apple’s plans to manufacture iPhones in India, hinting at broader tensions between the U.S. and India.
Hard Line Since 2019
The Modi government has systematically dismantled separatist networks and cracked down on dissent in Kashmir since 2019. Groups like the Hurriyat Conference have become nearly irrelevant. Despite Trump’s comments bringing global attention back to Kashmir, experts doubt this will prompt New Delhi to resume dialogue or ease its policies.
Political Costs for Modi
Domestic politics also make engagement risky for the BJP. The party has built electoral support on integrating Kashmir with India and opposing Article 370. Any foreign mediation or talks with separatists could be politically damaging. Even the opposition Congress has criticized the idea of internationalizing the Kashmir issue.
Congress leader Sachin Pilot reiterated the party’s stance: “Kashmir is a bilateral issue. No country, including the U.S., should intervene.” The party also cited a 1994 parliamentary resolution calling for the recovery of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
Mufti Calls for Bipartisanship
However, Peoples Democratic Party chief and former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti urged political unity. She said peaceful initiatives should not be dismissed for political gain and encouraged the opposition to support efforts for long-term peace.
The Need for Dialogue
The recent conflict was triggered by a deadly terror attack on tourists in Pahalgam. Despite efforts to curb militancy, the attack highlighted the region’s fragility. Analysts say that while Pakistan may sustain low-level insurgency, India must combine security measures with political outreach.
Former Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. DS Hooda emphasized the importance of engaging with local parties, noting their significant public support despite being seen as “soft separatists.”
A return to full statehood for Jammu and Kashmir may be under consideration, say scholars. While a return to pre-2019 status is unlikely, the central government might consider alternatives to coercive governance in its future Kashmir strategy.