Trump’s Return to the White House: Middle East on Edge
Trump’s Record and Future Focus
With his previous term as a guide, President-elect Donald Trump is expected to prioritize the Middle East in his upcoming presidency. His first term saw high-profile actions, such as selecting Saudi Arabia for his initial foreign visit, pushing for a “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians, bolstering Israel’s regional alliances, and intensifying pressure on Iran. Since Trump left office in 2021, however, the region has undergone major changes, prompting leaders to watch closely how he will approach these new dynamics.
Israel and Palestinian Relations
Trump’s Middle East agenda will likely address the ongoing conflicts involving Israel. Analysts suggest he may press Israel to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon and focus on regional integration. Mustafa Barghouti, a leader in the Palestinian National Initiative, believes Trump may impose stricter limits on Israel’s military actions compared to previous administrations, though he remains skeptical of any shift in US support for Palestinian independence. Former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas predicts Trump may urge Israeli leaders to end hostilities quickly, avoiding prolonged conflicts on his watch.
While Trump has not detailed how he would handle the Israel-Hamas war, his past comments imply he supports a decisive approach. Analysts like Boaz Bismuth of Israel’s Likud party see Trump’s return as an opportunity to expand the Abraham Accords, facilitating further normalization between Israel and Arab states.
Iran’s Position and the “Maximum Pressure” Campaign
Iran faces renewed scrutiny as Trump’s re-election signals a potential return to the “maximum pressure” strategy, which hurt Iran’s economy and isolated it on the global stage. Since 2021, Iran has increased its nuclear activity, oil exports, and support for regional militias. Tehran’s leadership, facing internal struggles, now confronts the possibility of an escalated US approach. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group speculates that Trump’s unpredictability could lead to heightened tensions, with the US and Israel possibly collaborating on actions against Iran.
Saudi Arabia and Gulf States’ Strategic Shifts
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have adapted their foreign policies since Trump’s last term, aiming for diplomatic solutions over military actions and forging stronger connections with China. While Gulf leaders welcomed Trump’s win, they face potential pressure to align with US interests, especially if Trump seeks to limit Chinese influence in the region. Experts, such as Hasan Alhasan from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, suggest that Gulf states may struggle to balance US relations with their growing ties to China and regional adversaries like Iran.
Qatar’s Position as a US Mediator
Qatar, an essential intermediary for US efforts with Gaza due to its connections with Hamas, could find itself in a difficult position. While Qatar has extended congratulations to Trump, there are concerns that its role may conflict with Trump’s hardline stance on regional militias and groups like Hamas.
Looking Ahead
Trump’s re-election marks a new chapter for the Middle East, with regional actors preparing for a potentially volatile period as the president-elect charts his foreign policy path. As Trump’s administration shapes up, leaders in the region are preparing for complex decisions and evolving alliances that will impact the Middle East’s future trajectory.