China does not want war, especially with the US, but it aims to become the world’s top economic power. To achieve this, Beijing is working to remove the US military presence from the seas around East and Southeast Asia, securing control over vital shipping routes for global trade.
China is strengthening both its nuclear and conventional forces to show the US that it is now a powerful and dangerous rival. Once seen as outdated, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) now fields advanced weapons like hypersonic missiles and fifth-generation warplanes, along with the world’s largest navy.
The US, long dominant in the Asia-Pacific with thousands of troops in Japan and South Korea and multiple military bases, has focused on countering China, especially under Trump’s administration, which initiated a trade war and sought closer ties with regional allies.
The Shangri-La Dialogue, a key security forum held in Singapore, traditionally serves as a stage for the US and China to present their visions for regional security. The three-day meeting, opening Friday, will highlight the ongoing struggle for influence.
Taiwan and the South China Sea
Taiwan, a self-governing democratic island, is economically critical as it produces over 90% of the world’s advanced microchips. President Xi Jinping of China has vowed to reclaim Taiwan by force if necessary, despite widespread Taiwanese opposition to reunification.
The US has helped Taiwan strengthen its defenses but maintains “strategic ambiguity” — keeping China uncertain about whether it would intervene militarily. While President Biden has hinted at military support, former President Trump’s return adds uncertainty.
China’s military build-up in the South China Sea, including artificial islands and military bases, aims to dominate this strategic waterway through which $3 trillion of trade passes yearly. Chinese fishing fleets and coastguard ships frequently clash with neighboring countries, especially the Philippines, over disputed waters.
North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions
Despite US denials during Trump’s first term, North Korea has developed nuclear missiles capable of reaching the continental US. The isolated nation is believed to have at least 20 warheads and a large army, with some troops sent to support Russia in Ukraine.
India-Pakistan Tensions
Recent clashes between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan have raised alarms. Although India’s military is larger, Pakistan reportedly struck back effectively, using Chinese-supplied jets and missiles. China’s support to Pakistan reportedly included satellite intelligence.
Both countries are expected to address the Shangri-La Dialogue, while the US and others seek ways to prevent future conflicts, especially over Kashmir.
Questioning US Reliability
The region’s trust in the US has been shaken by sudden trade tariffs imposed under Trump, prompting some to question whether Washington would defend its allies in a crisis.
China has capitalized on this uncertainty, promoting itself as a stable partner even to countries it previously fought, like Vietnam.
The US, UK, and Australia have formed the Aukus alliance to build Australian submarines and ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. However, Trump appeared unfamiliar with the pact, raising questions about US commitment.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to address the Shangri-La Dialogue with updates on Aukus and America’s strategy to engage or counter China in the Asia-Pacific.