Divergent views persist between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian officials regarding a potential peace deal in the Ukraine war. Kyiv’s administration believes Trump will be unable to reach a peace agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Instead, they hope Trump will lose patience with Putin’s stubbornness and directly support Ukraine. On the other hand, Trump believes economic warfare threats could force Putin into a peace deal.
Which of these perspectives proves true will determine Ukraine’s future and put Trump’s self-proclaimed title as the “Great Dealmaker” to the test. However, both sides may end up being proven wrong, according to U.S. media outlet Politico.
For Ukraine, Trump’s role oscillates between hope and fear. If Trump fails to reach a peace deal with Putin, U.S. support for Ukraine might increase. However, if Putin succeeds in manipulating Trump, Ukraine’s situation could grow more complex.
Ukraine’s fate now hinges on the diplomatic game between Trump and Putin. The outcome of this game is critical not just for Ukraine but for the entire world.
Last week, Trump issued a message to Putin, warning of economic warfare. He said, “We can do this the easy way or the hard way—and the easy way is always better.” Trump made it clear that if Putin refuses to negotiate to end the war, he would impose further tariffs and sanctions on Russia. He reiterated this threat in an interview with Fox News.
Initially, some Russian officials dismissed Trump’s warning, but within hours, Putin’s tone changed. Praising Trump, Putin said he was ready for discussions and described their relationship as “pragmatic, realistic, and credible.” Putin added that if Trump had been in the White House in 2022, this war might not have occurred.
Ukrainian officials believe Putin will not agree to any terms short of Ukraine’s surrender—terms that someone like Trump, known as a dealmaker, would likely reject. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently expressed concerns about Putin’s tactics in a televised speech. He warned that Putin might try to charm Trump with sweet talk to buy time and manipulate him.
Ukraine’s strategy is for Trump to lose patience with Putin’s duplicity. However, members of Trump’s administration suspect that economic concerns might prompt Putin to negotiate, though evidence of such willingness remains scarce. Despite economic struggles, Putin has shown no signs of interest in discussions.
Experts argue Putin has little reason to halt the war now. The war has prepared Russian society, economy, and foreign policy for continued resistance against the West. It has also become a means of resource redistribution in Russia’s poorer regions and a source of profit for elites investing in the defense sector.
Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University stated, “There are few signs that Putin is interested in negotiations.” He believes Russia is making steady progress in the war and could achieve greater success in the coming years.
Efforts to strengthen ties with Ukraine are ongoing under the guidance of Trump’s special envoy, retired General Keith Kellogg. In December, Kellogg, Trump’s National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Zelensky’s chief aide Andriy Yermak held a meeting, which reportedly ended successfully.
A senior Republican lobbyist commented, “Trump must understand on his own that Putin is unwilling to make any concessions. Ukraine must play a constructive role in this process. Trump and his aides need direct experience dealing with the Russians.”