Sahadat Russell
Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House raises both hope and concern across the Middle East, as his leadership could reshape U.S. foreign policy in one of the world’s most volatile regions. Known for his unorthodox, transactional approach to diplomacy and a preference for aligning with strongman leaders, a Trump presidency could lead to significant realignments in alliances, strategies, and power dynamics throughout the region.
Authoritarian Leaders Could Flourish
One of the most predictable outcomes of Trump’s return would likely be a boon for authoritarian leaders in the Middle East. Trump has made no secret of his admiration for figures like Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. During his first term, Trump referred to Sisi as his “favorite dictator,” signaling a willingness to overlook Egypt’s human rights abuses in favor of maintaining a stable ally in a turbulent region. Similarly, Trump praised Erdoğan, describing himself as a “big fan” of the Turkish leader despite concerns over Erdoğan’s authoritarian tendencies and controversial military campaigns in Syria.
Under Trump, these leaders may enjoy a continuation of a policy that prioritizes pragmatic alliances over value-based diplomacy. Unlike previous administrations, which occasionally pressured leaders on issues like press freedom, political rights, and democratic governance, Trump’s foreign policy largely avoided such interventions. This approach would likely embolden leaders like Sisi and Erdoğan to consolidate power further, free from the threat of American criticism or sanctions.
Gulf States and the Iran Question
For the Gulf monarchies, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Trump’s return could mark the revival of hardline policies against their regional rival, Iran. During his first term, Trump implemented the “maximum pressure” campaign, withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and imposing crippling sanctions. These measures endeared him to Gulf leaders who view Iran’s growing influence as a destabilizing force in the region.
Bahrain, a Sunni-ruled monarchy with a Shia-majority population, stands to benefit particularly from a tougher U.S. stance on Iran. Bahrain accuses Iran of meddling in its internal affairs by supporting Shia opposition groups, a claim Tehran denies. A renewed focus on containing Iran would not only align with Bahrain’s strategic interests but also reassure other Gulf states looking to curb Iranian-backed militias in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon.
Challenges for the Syrian Kurds
While some in the Middle East may welcome Trump’s potential policies, others could face dire consequences. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a U.S.-backed coalition dominated by Kurdish fighters, could see their position severely undermined. The SDF has been a crucial ally in the fight against ISIS, but their ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist organization in Turkey, have made them a target for Turkish aggression.
During his first term, Trump’s abrupt decisions regarding Syria, including a partial troop withdrawal in 2019, left the SDF vulnerable to Turkish military incursions. A second Trump presidency might see a complete U.S. withdrawal from Syria, leaving the Kurds to fend for themselves against a more aggressive Turkey. Without American support, the SDF may be forced to seek protection from adversaries like Russia or the Assad regime, further complicating the region’s already fragmented alliances.
Israel-Palestine Dynamics and Iran’s Growing Anxiety
One of the most contentious areas of Trump’s Middle East policy is his strong alignment with Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a close ally during Trump’s first term, could expect even greater support in a second. Trump’s previous decisions, such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and supporting Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, set the tone for a U.S. policy heavily skewed in Israel’s favor.
Under a renewed Trump administration, Netanyahu may face fewer restrictions in pursuing aggressive policies toward Palestinians, including expanding settlements in the West Bank and escalating military actions in Gaza. This could further marginalize Palestinian leadership and diminish prospects for a two-state solution. Meanwhile, Iran, a staunch supporter of Palestinian groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, would likely view Trump’s return as a serious threat.
Trump’s alignment with Israel and hostility toward Tehran could embolden Israel to conduct more aggressive operations against Iranian assets, such as nuclear facilities or proxy militias. Iranian officials have reportedly accused Trump of targeting their leadership, heightening tensions between the two nations. This animosity, combined with potential Israeli military actions, could destabilize the region further.
Transactional Diplomacy and the Gulf’s Strategy
Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy could also provide Gulf nations with opportunities to leverage their wealth and strategic importance. During his first term, Trump often emphasized economic benefits in his dealings, such as large-scale arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Gulf leaders could exploit this by announcing high-profile defense deals, even if the long-term implementation remains uncertain.
This strategy aligns with Trump’s preference for grand displays of cooperation and economic partnerships, which could help Gulf states secure American support while avoiding deeper scrutiny of their internal policies or regional ambitions.
A Region Resilient to Change
The Middle East has endured decades of wars, uprisings, and foreign interventions, shaping a resilience to external shocks. While Trump’s leadership could bring new challenges, the region’s adaptability suggests that it will find ways to navigate the shifting geopolitical landscape.
Whether Trump’s policies will equally benefit or harm U.S. allies and adversaries remains to be seen. His return could usher in significant changes, particularly regarding Iran, Israel, and Syria, but the long-term implications of his leadership will depend on how effectively regional actors adapt to the evolving dynamics.
For better or worse, a second Trump term would likely redefine America’s role in the Middle East, with consequences that extend far beyond the region itself. Only time will reveal whether his policies lead to greater stability or heightened conflict.