May 5, 2025 1:26 am
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Trump and Japan’s Ishiba Discuss Potential $44 Billion Alaska LNG Project

When President Donald Trump sat down to lunch with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba this month, the discussion quickly turned to how Tokyo could help realize a long-standing proposal to unlock gas in Alaska and export it to U.S. allies in Asia.

Trump and his energy advisor Doug Burgum framed the venture as a strategy for Japan to replace Middle East energy shipments and address its trade imbalance with the U.S., according to two officials briefed on the private talks.

Eager to ensure a positive first meeting and avoid damaging U.S. tariffs, Ishiba struck an optimistic tone regarding the $44 billion Alaska LNG project, despite Tokyo’s skepticism about its viability. Ishiba expressed hope that Japan could participate in the project, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Trump frequently mentioned the project in his public remarks following the lunch, while Ishiba did not, and there was no reference to it in the official readout of the discussions.

Reuters interviews with over a dozen people, including current and former U.S. and Asian officials, reveal how the Trump administration is attempting to reshape economic relations with East Asia by binding regional allies to Washington through increased investment in American fossil fuels, particularly LNG.

The U.S. sales pitch aims to tap into concerns in Asian capitals regarding tariffs and the security of sea lanes that carry their energy imports. While the Alaska LNG proposal faces cost and logistical challenges, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and others are increasingly open to the idea of boosting U.S. gas imports, which could strengthen the U.S. economy and reduce China’s and Russia’s influence.

Japan’s role in Trump’s emerging strategy is crucial: It is the world’s second-largest LNG buyer, a major investor in energy infrastructure, and a trading hub with a surplus of LNG that could help open new markets for U.S. gas in Southeast Asia.

“If the Trump administration had its way, U.S. LNG would flow in massive quantities to Japan and South Korea and then downstream to Southeast Asia, making the region economically dependent on the United States,” said Kenneth Weinstein, Japan chair at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank. “It’s redrawing the map of energy dependence.”

In a joint statement with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Saturday, Japanese and South Korean foreign ministers agreed to strengthen energy security by “unleashing” America’s “affordable and reliable energy,” particularly LNG. They did not mention Alaska.

White House National Security Spokesman Brian Hughes told Reuters that the U.S. “produces some of the cleanest LNG in the world and believes the Japanese can play an even bigger role in purchasing America’s abundant oil and gas.”

Japan’s foreign ministry declined to comment on the accounts of the Ishiba-Trump meeting. Japan’s trade minister plans to visit Washington next month to seek exemptions from Trump’s tariffs and discuss Japan’s plans to buy more U.S. LNG, Japanese media reported on Thursday.

The idea of building an 800-mile pipeline linking gas fields on Alaska’s North Slope to an export terminal on its Pacific coast has long faced high costs and harsh terrain challenges.

However, anticipating that Trump might raise the project during the February 7 meeting with Ishiba, Japan was prepared to voice tentative support to gain his favor and prevent trade friction, Reuters reported last month.

Over lunch with Trump and Burgum, the U.S. asked Japan to consider infrastructure investments in Alaska LNG as well as long-term purchase agreements, according to the officials.

The U.S. side emphasized the project’s proximity to Japan compared to the Middle East and the fact that shipments would avoid sensitive choke points such as the Straits of Hormuz, Malacca, and the South China Sea, the officials said.

Additional purchases of U.S. LNG could also help Asian allies reduce reliance on Russian gas, said Dan Sullivan, a U.S. senator for Alaska.

Alaska LNG “was a significant part of the discussion” with Ishiba, Sullivan, who was briefed on the talks, told Reuters.

At one point during the meeting, U.S. officials used maps to highlight the strategic benefits of the Alaska project, said Sullivan and another official.

“Having a president who’s forceful and tenacious, spending this much time on this project, I’m sure made an impression on the Japanese,” Sullivan said.

Project developers are seeking investment from firms such as Inpex, a Tokyo-listed oil and gas exploration company whose largest stakeholder is the Japanese government, according to two other sources.

A spokesperson for Inpex, which has not been previously linked to the Alaska plan, said it would not comment on “discussions or dealings with specific stakeholders.”

Japan obtains around one-tenth of its LNG from the U.S., with similar proportions from Russia and the Middle East, according to Japan’s finance ministry. Australia accounts for about 40%.

Hiroshi Hashimoto, senior analyst at the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, said LNG imports from the U.S. could reach 20% of Japan’s total over the next five to 10 years as existing contracts, including with Russia, expire.

U.S. LNG is primarily shipped to Japan from the Gulf of Mexico via the Panama Canal or the longer route around Africa and through the Indian Ocean.

There are no LNG export terminals on the U.S. west coast, a more direct route to Asia, although Sempra’s Costa Azul project in Mexico, supplied by U.S. gas, is expected to start commercial operations next year.

Of the 119.8 billion cubic meters of LNG the U.S. shipped last year, more than a third went to Asia, according to LSEG data.

Beyond Japan, Trump’s energy security argument appears to be resonating elsewhere in Asia, especially with trade tariffs looming.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a similar gas pledge during a meeting with Trump this month.

Taiwan, the democratically ruled island claimed by China, is also considering more U.S. energy purchases, including LNG from Alaska.

Increasing Taiwan’s dependence on U.S. energy could help deter China from taking aggressive steps such as naval blockades, said Landon Derentz, who was a senior U.S. energy official during Trump’s first term.

With U.S. supplies, “in some ways you’re contracting for a security guarantee that the United States will be an advocate in the event of a conflict to ensure that supply arrives,” he said.

South Korea is also considering investing in Alaskan LNG and other U.S. energy projects, two South Korean officials told Reuters. Seoul hoped for concessions from Trump in return, one said.

A spokesperson for South Korea’s industry ministry said Seoul was exploring ways to strengthen energy security with the U.S.

Bill Hagerty, a U.S. senator for Tennessee who served as ambassador to Tokyo during Trump’s first term, told Reuters he would like Japan, which already trades its surplus gas, to become the key distribution hub for U.S.-origin LNG.

“Whether it’s from Alaska, Louisiana, or Texas, America can work very closely with Japan to create the type of energy security bonds that will be beneficial for our nations’ economies and national security,” he said.

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