Anwar Shadat Jihan, Wichita, KS, U.S.A
After the ouster of the longest-lasting government in Bangladesh’s history, the country has plunged into chaos. From the overall law-and-order situation of the country to the basic safety and security of the citizens, factors that directly affect the overall stability of the country have suffered an immense blow. A flurry of mob attacks against Awami League activists, supporters, and their family members, alleged abuse of state machinery to violently crack down on the political opposition by the current interim government, and an uncontrollable rise in extortion, hijacking, and rape have further exacerbated political instability and resulted in a decline in citizens’ trust towards the Yunus-led interim government.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250101-bangladesh-saw-surge-of-mob-killings-in-2024-rights-groups
The mob lynchings and deaths attributed to mob attacks have increased threefold compared to the average of the previous five years, alarming human rights organizations. While targeted mob attacks against Awami League activists have become an everyday reality in Bangladesh, the interim government is failing miserably to restore the law-and-order situation. There have been 295 documented incidents of violence against women and children in February alone, according to a report by the Manabadhikar Songskriti Foundation (MSF). Meanwhile, the chief advisor to the IG, Professor Yunus, claimed in an interview with the BBC that the crime rate in Bangladesh remains unchanged, denying the worsening law-and-order situation.
When a government denies reality and fails to demonstrate control over the law and order of the country, when a government acts with genocidal tendencies toward a specific political party, and when a government shows no respect for the basic rights of its citizens, the existing political instability is accentuated. The longer the political upheaval persists in Bangladesh, the stronger the political instability will become. This political instability is directly tied to the economic health of the country. According to experts, political instability is regarded as a great impediment to economic growth, adversely affecting economic performance. The political instability results in frequent policy changes, which generate an uncertain politico-economic environment.
In a recent interview with The Guardian, Yunus claimed that Awami League chief Sheikh Hasina had left Bangladesh in a condition similar to Gaza. However, when looking at the socio-economic parameters from the time Sheikh Hasina took power to the time she left, Professor Yunus’s claim appears to be inaccurate. According to World Bank data, when Sheikh Hasina became the Prime Minister in 2008, the GDP of Bangladesh was $91.64 billion. In 2024, when the Awami League government was toppled, the GDP of Bangladesh was $461 billion, five times more than that of 2008. According to the IMF, in 2008, Bangladesh’s per capita income was approximately $550 USD. In 2024, Bangladesh’s estimated per capita income, measured in nominal terms, was around $2,623.
The global economic slowdown due to the COVID pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the shifting global order have put pressure on the economy of Bangladesh during the final days of the Awami League government. However, this is far from what Yunus claimed. Even a few days ago, major international economic organizations viewed Bangladesh as a role model for the remarkable growth it achieved over the last decade. What followed the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in the country’s economic parameters is alarming. An uncertain socio-political environment, a broken law-and-order condition, and the lack of trust among various elements are adversely affecting the overall economic performance of the country.
In November last year, Moody’s, a reputed financial agency, downgraded Bangladesh’s credit rating, citing heightened political risks and lower growth. The Moody’s report highlighted that political risks are rising due to increased social tensions, the lack of a clear election roadmap, the decline in law and order, and the emerging resurgence of community-based conflicts. Similar ratings have been observed from other reputable global financial and investment service providers. The turbulent political environment is resulting in a lack of trust among investors, which in turn is causing a dent in the overall investment scenario. The rising gas prices, increasing production costs, and labor unrest are leading the RMG sector in a troubling direction.
There has been a 42 per cent drop in “garment export purchase orders (UD)” in February compared to the previous month. The readymade garments industry is a significant force that propels the overall economy of Bangladesh. Any swift change in the RMG sector’s performance can either make or break the country’s economic future. If not corrected, the effects of political instability on the energy sector will have a domino effect, deteriorating the economy into a bottomless abyss. While the economy of Bangladesh is facing its most critical time since its independence, the interim government instead of focusing on the important factors such as the law-and-order, the human rights, and a defined roadmap of the return to democracy, is busy boosting the news of Starlink’s activities in Bangladesh. Perhaps, as a futile attempt to regain the citizens’ trust which is deteriorating by the day.
From the drop in UD to the decline in FDI, all the negatively impacted economic parameters have one malaise in common: political instability. No action by the interim government has been tailored to tackling these challenges and restoring stability. By blatantly denying reality and spreading disinformation and misinformation through international media, using the individual credibility of Professor Yunus, the interim government won’t be able to restore democracy in Bangladesh. The citizens of the country, the civil society, and the international community all need to unite to demand urgent action from the government to restore political stability in Bangladesh, to restore law and order, and to return to an environment where citizens can breathe without fear.
Author Information:
The writer is an Aerospace Engineer, Spirit Aerosystems, Wichita, KS