Subrata Mondal
In the final run-up to the US presidential election, both leading candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, are campaigning intensively in swing states, to win over undecided voters. Election workers are also busy ensuring the votes of their supporters. Polling agencies are conducting last-minute surveys to gauge voters’ feelings.
Election analysts are trying to uncover hidden factors influencing the election, including gender bias, as many conservative Democratic men may be reluctant to vote for orange. Frustrated with Trump’s behavior, some Republican voters may lean against him internally. Former Vice President Dick Cheney, the architect of the Iraq War, has publicly supported Kamala Harris. Major news outlets such as CNN, USA Today, CBS, and The Washington Post are covering these developments.
Local media reports indicate that this election cycle has led to an increase in bizarre and divisive rhetoric. Trump has become significantly more aggressive in his goal of rallying citizens against undocumented immigrants specifically from Latin America, focusing on immigration. He claims they are contributing to crime and taking jobs from Americans for low wages, a position that has emboldened many of his supporters.
In Springfield, Ohio, where a group of hardworking Haitian immigrants live, Trump recently claimed that these immigrants ate all local pets. The Republican mayor of Springfield dismissed it as a lie.Arab and Muslim voters are divided, largely because of U.S. support for Israel. The recent conflict in Gaza, in which thousands of Palestinians have been killed, has deeply angered many American Muslims and Arabs, some of whom are Lebanese and Palestinian Christians. The impact of this voting bloc is significant in Michigan, which has 15 electoral votes. Polls suggest that any candidate could win in Michigan, which could determine the overall outcome of the election. Arab and Muslim voters are divided into three groups: 1) those who see Kamala as a safe choice and believe she can show more sympathy for the Palestinians; 2) Those who think Trump’s non-interventionist approach could lead to peace; and 3) Those who are disillusioned with both candidates and may vote for or abstain from a third-party candidate. The first party seems to be the largest, but without the Arab-Muslim vote, Orange could struggle to win Michigan—and without Michigan, her path to the presidency is challenging.
World leaders are watching the U.S. election closely with a mixture of hope and anxiety. Some countries will benefit if Trump wins, while others may be at a disadvantage. Trump has a long-standing friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin; In his previous term, Trump allegedly sent Covid vaccines to Russia without notifying Congress, with Biden supporting Ukraine with military aid against Russia. Putin is expected to be happy if Trump wins.
European countries, however, are wary of Trump, threatening to disband NATO and demanding more financial aid from member states. European leaders generally favor Kamala Harris, although Hungary’s autocratic Prime Minister Viktor Orban is a strong Trump supporter.
Both Biden and Kamala have consistently backed Israel, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has expressed support for Trump, his longtime ally and staunch Palestinian opponent.
In reality, the outcome of the election depends on only seven important battleground states. Polls show that in these states, both candidates are almost tied, with little lead change between them.
Prominent American statistician Nate Silver commented that current data suggest a 50-50 chance for either candidate. However, his insight points to a Trump victory, as Trump has many rural supporters who are hard to reach through polls and often remain uncounted at the polls. But Kamala may have its own hidden voters. Ultimately, the final result will reveal who has the last laugh, and the world will have to wait until then.
SM/ RH