Colombo, Sri Lanka – In a dramatic realignment of Sri Lankan politics, 2024 marked a year of transformative change as Anura Kumara Dissanayake, popularly known as AKD, secured the presidency in September and led his Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) coalition to a decisive parliamentary victory in November. The twin elections not only represented one of the most peaceful votes in Sri Lanka’s recent history but also signaled a decisive rejection of long-entrenched elites, with the JVP’s rise symbolizing a shift towards pluralist governance and professional leadership.
Dissanayake’s victory in the presidential race—where he went from 4% of the vote in 2019 to 42% this year—paved the way for an unprecedented supermajority for his NPP coalition in the parliamentary elections. The coalition surged from three to 159 seats, marking the first time under the current preferential voting system that a single party or coalition achieved such dominance. Long-dominant factions, including the Rajapaksa family, suffered severe losses. Once a political dynasty that shaped Sri Lankan governance, the Rajapaksa-led Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) won just three parliamentary seats. Former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s nephew, Namal Rajapaksa, trailed with under 3% in the presidential polls.
The new parliament also reflects significant change, with nearly 150 first-time legislators among its 196 elected members. For the first time in decades, the Rajapaksas opted not to contest in their stronghold of Hambantota District. Additionally, the representation of women in parliament nearly doubled, with Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya playing a pivotal role in mobilizing support for the NPP.
Pluralism and Changing Alliances
Dissanayake’s success stemmed from his ability to transcend long-standing ethno-religious divides. While Tamil and Muslim minorities traditionally back ethnic parties during legislative polls, their significant support for the NPP—especially in Northern Tamil-dominated districts—highlighted a political shift. Dissanayake’s outreach to minority communities, despite their earlier reluctance during the presidential elections, helped secure wins in five of six minority-majority districts—an unprecedented achievement for a Sinhalese-Buddhist-led party.
From Insurgency to Governance: The JVP’s Historic Transformation
The JVP’s rise marks a stunning political reversal. Once banned and associated with bloody insurrections in 1971 and 1987-89 that claimed thousands of lives, the JVP has now ascended to the nation’s highest offices. The party’s popularity, however, is rooted in public disillusionment with Sri Lanka’s economic woes, which reached a crisis point in 2022 with sovereign debt default and widespread economic hardships.
Economic Challenges Take Center Stage
Despite the NPP’s political triumph, Sri Lanka’s economic troubles remain daunting. The country is navigating its 17th International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout program, tasked with reducing a public debt exceeding 109% of GDP, repaying billions in loans, and revitalizing the economy. Dissanayake’s government faces mounting pressure to address poverty, food scarcity, and soaring living costs, challenges that test its promise to tackle corruption and mismanagement.
Early controversies, such as the resignation of the parliamentary speaker over allegations of falsified academic qualifications, underscore the difficulties of governance for the new regime. Complaints over unfulfilled promises, including lowering fuel prices and aiding flood-hit farmers, already signal growing public impatience.
Foreign Policy: Balancing Key Partners
On the international front, Dissanayake’s government has promised a “neutral” foreign policy amid regional rivalries. While China remains a critical stakeholder, particularly in Sri Lanka’s infrastructure projects, India has also taken steps to strengthen relations with the new leadership. Diplomatic discussions are ongoing over contentious issues, including Indian energy projects, illegal fishing disputes, and geopolitical concerns tied to Chinese naval activities.
Efforts to revive stalled development projects with Japan have also gained momentum, underscoring Sri Lanka’s desire to diversify partnerships and prioritize economic recovery.
The Road Ahead
As Sri Lanka grapples with deep economic wounds and a polarized political landscape, Dissanayake and his NPP government face a formidable task. Their success will ultimately hinge on whether they can meet the everyday needs of citizens while enacting meaningful reforms. While the political transformation has been historic, delivering tangible change remains the new administration’s biggest challenge.