RIYADH – Saudi Arabia has stepped back from pursuing a sweeping defence treaty with the United States in exchange for normalising relations with Israel. Instead, the kingdom is negotiating a scaled-down military cooperation agreement, according to Saudi and Western officials.
Earlier this year, Riyadh signalled flexibility on Palestinian statehood, suggesting it could accept an Israeli commitment to a two-state solution to formalise ties. However, growing public outrage over Israel’s actions in Gaza has led Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to renew demands for concrete progress toward a Palestinian state before recognising Israel, sources said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains eager to secure normalisation with Saudi Arabia as a landmark achievement but faces fierce domestic opposition to any concessions to the Palestinians. Analysts suggest any move toward Palestinian statehood would fracture his ruling coalition.
A Shift Toward Pragmatic Defence Cooperation
With broader security treaty talks faltering, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. are discussing a more limited pact focused on military cooperation. This agreement would expand joint drills, strengthen defence firm partnerships, and bolster Saudi investments in advanced technologies, particularly drone and missile defences. The U.S. may also deploy a Patriot missile battalion to Riyadh.
However, the proposed pact stops short of the binding mutual defence treaty Riyadh initially sought, similar to U.S. agreements with Japan or South Korea.
“Saudi Arabia will get a security deal which will allow more military cooperation and sales of U.S. weapons, but not a defence treaty,” said Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Institute.
Time Constraints and Political Uncertainty
U.S. officials hope to finalise a deal before President Joe Biden leaves office in January, but negotiations face obstacles. Saudi objections to nuclear restrictions, human rights clauses, and the U.S. Senate’s likely refusal to approve a treaty without Israel recognition complicate matters.
Complicating the picture further is the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. Trump, a close ally of the Saudi crown prince, previously proposed a plan that bypasses Palestinian statehood and aligns with Israeli territorial claims. Diplomats suggest Trump may push Riyadh to normalise relations with Israel without substantial concessions for Palestinians.
Crown Prince’s Balancing Act
The Gaza conflict has heightened regional tensions, with Saudi Arabia reiterating that Palestinian statehood remains central to peace efforts. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman recently condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza as “collective genocide” and reaffirmed support for a two-state solution.
While normalisation talks with Israel are on hold, analysts believe they could resume after the Gaza conflict, potentially under different Israeli leadership. Trump’s influence, however, could steer negotiations in a different direction.
“For Trump, Saudi Arabia is the big prize,” said Middle East expert Fawaz Gerges. “He may promise a ceasefire in Gaza and tentative support for a Palestinian state, while avoiding real concessions from Israel.”
Saudi officials maintain that lasting regional peace hinges on Palestinian self-determination, warning that bypassing the issue will only perpet