Washington, D.C. – March 2025
Renowned American analyst Michael Rubin has sparked intense debate with his recent article, “Will There Be a Coup in Bangladesh?”, where he examines the country’s escalating political crisis following the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
On August 5, 2024, mass anti-government protests in Bangladesh turned violent, forcing Hasina to flee the country. With the collapse of her government, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was appointed as the interim chief advisor by protest leaders. However, Yunus’s leadership has proven controversial, with Rubin drawing parallels between him and Rwanda’s Paul Rusesabagina, suggesting that Yunus may be entangled in political ambitions fueled by external influences.
Rubin questions whether the protests were truly organic, pointing to potential interference from Pakistan’s intelligence agency, ISI, which has historically opposed Bangladesh’s close ties with India. He further suggests that Yunus, knowingly or unknowingly, is aiding Jamaat-e-Islami, a group linked to Bangladesh’s 1971 war crimes. The new administration has already arrested over 900 individuals, including prominent journalists and political leaders, raising concerns about political repression.
With rising instability, Bangladesh’s military held an emergency meeting last week, fueling speculation about a possible coup. Rubin argues that if the army intervenes to restore constitutional order, the United States may remain neutral, viewing it as a necessary step against extremist influences. He also notes that President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio may perceive the situation as a counter-coup against Pakistan’s interests.
As tensions escalate, all eyes are now on Bangladesh’s Army Chief, Waqar-uz-Zaman. His decision could determine the country’s trajectory—whether it descends further into political unrest or moves toward stability.