Pakistani farmers and experts have expressed deep concern over India’s threat to suspend water flow from the Indus River, intensifying fears of a looming agricultural and humanitarian crisis.
Near the Indus River, Pakistani farmer Homla Thakur was seen spraying pesticide on his parched vegetable field. Speaking to Reuters, the 40-year-old farmer said, “If India stops the water, these fertile lands and the entire country will turn into a desert. We will die of hunger.”
Fifteen other farmers and experts echoed his concerns, citing a significant decrease in rainfall in recent years.
For the first time since the signing of the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960 — brokered by the World Bank — India recently announced the suspension of the treaty, claiming it will remain suspended until Pakistan ceases its alleged support for cross-border terrorism. India pointed to the killing of 26 people in a Jammu and Kashmir attack on April 22, in which two alleged attackers were said to be Pakistani nationals — a claim Pakistan has completely denied. Pakistan warned that any attempt to divert or block its share of water would be considered “an act of war.”
The Indus Waters Treaty has long governed the sharing of water from the Indus River and its tributaries between the nuclear-armed neighbors. Although India currently lacks the infrastructure to block water flow immediately — as it has not built large dams or reservoirs on rivers allotted to Pakistan — experts warn that the situation could change within months.
Indian Water Resources Minister Chandrakant Raghunath Patil recently posted on social media, vowing to ensure that “not a single drop” of Indus water flows into Pakistan. However, he declined to comment on the impact of his remarks on Pakistani farmers.
According to Indian officials, India could potentially reroute the water to its farmers and initiate hydroelectric dam construction, which might be completed within four to seven years. Additionally, India could immediately halt the sharing of flood-related information and opt out of annual meetings concerning the Indus rivers — actions that could severely impact Pakistan’s agriculture and electricity generation sectors.
Kushvinder Bohra, a retired official of India’s Central Water Commission and a former Indus Commissioner, said, “Pakistan would have minimal information about when and how much water would flow, making it difficult for them to plan agriculture.” He added that water scarcity could also heavily impact Pakistan’s economy.
Bhakar Ahmed, an economist from Oxford Policy Management, told Reuters that while India’s current capability to block water flow is limited, Pakistan should use this period to address its shortcomings in the water sector.
Ongoing Disputes
In recent years, the Indian government, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has sought to renegotiate the Indus Waters Treaty. Disputes over the size of the Kishanganga River and the storage capacity of the under-construction Ratle Hydroelectric Plant were being addressed at the International Court of Arbitration in The Hague.
Now that India has suspended the treaty, officials suggest that India could move forward with its water infrastructure projects without restrictions. Last Thursday, India sent an official letter to Pakistan, arguing that population growth and geographic changes since 1960, along with the need for more hydropower, justify their actions.
Meanwhile, the World Bank, which initially mediated the treaty, stated that its role is limited and that it has little say in how the two nations choose to proceed.
Pakistani farmer Nadeem Shah, who cultivates 150 acres of cotton, sugarcane, wheat, and vegetables, expressed fears over drinking water shortages. “We trust Allah,” he said, “but we are worried about India’s actions.”
The three tributaries allotted to Pakistan under the treaty irrigate about 16 million hectares — approximately 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural land.
According to Ghassarin Shaukat of the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, “Pakistan was never prepared for such a situation. The rivers not only supported agriculture but also urban water supply, electricity generation, and thousands of livelihoods.”
Despite four wars between India and Pakistan since 1947, the Indus Waters Treaty had remained untouched — until now. Pakistani politician Bilawal Bhutto warned, “Walking away from the Indus Waters Treaty would open the door to new conflicts for future generations — something that must be avoided.”