As the award season gains momentum, here are twelve films that could capture the top honor – and the ways they might succeed.
‘Anora’
What Happens: An escort cuts a deal with an oligarch’s son, and then gangsters get involved.
Reason to Believe: Three of the last four Palme d’Or winners have made the Best Picture cut for Neon — and one won (Parasite).
Reason to Doubt: Are the indie sensibilities of Baker and his unconventional visions too much for some voters?
‘Blitz’
What Happens: A single mother and her son are separated in Blitz-era London.
Reason to Believe: Period credibility and past Oscar darling Steve McQueen.
Reason to Doubt: Saving Private Ryan, Dunkirk, and 1917: World War films these days tend to come up short.
‘The Brutalist’
What Happens: An architect who escaped the Holocaust makes his way to the U.S. to live an epic life.
Reason to Believe: A sweeping vision that clocks in at over three hours.
Reason to Doubt: A sweeping vision that clocks in at over three hours.
‘A Complete Unknown’
What Happens: Bob Dylan plugs in at Newport, and everyone needs shelter from the storm.
Reason to Believe: After zooming ahead with Ford v Ferrari, Mangold is aiming for the finish line. Plus, Timothée Chalamet as an icon.
Reason to Doubt: Does the rock-folk tension feel consequential enough in 2024?
‘Conclave’
What Happens: A pope dies, and everyone wants the top job.
Reason to Believe: Delicious fun in serious clothing.
Reason to Doubt: Is it about enough? Also, a divisive ending.
‘Dune: Part Two’
What Happens: More adventures of Paul Atreides as he forms new alliances and wages new wars.
Reason to Believe: A franchise and a director that have been building momentum for years.
Reason to Doubt: Distant-planet epics and March releases often get forgotten.
‘Emilia Pérez’
What Happens: Your typical Spanish-language cartel thriller/trans-themed family drama with musical elements.
Reason to Believe: The sheer audacity and relevant topicality.
Reason to Doubt: Is the “Never-Netflix” voter still a thing?
‘Gladiator II’
What Happens: A grown-up Lucius returns to Rome to restore gladiatorial glory to his people.
Reason to Believe: Nostalgia for both the Roman period and the days of studio historical epics.
Reason to Doubt: “Didn’t we honor this movie in 2001?”
‘The Seed of The Sacred Fig’
What Happens: A family in repressive Iran is torn apart by politics.
Reason to Believe: Geopolitical resonance and a director who escaped Iran with his film.
Reason to Doubt: Best Picture winners don’t often include long, foreign-language dramas set halfway around the world.
‘September 5’
What Happens: One day in Munich in the ABC News control room during the 1972 Olympics.
Reason to Believe: Sorkin-esque urgency about major media topics.
Reason to Doubt: Global indies can struggle without as many crew members and filmmakers that voters know, plus the fraught Israeli-Palestinian backdrop.
‘Wicked’
What Happens: Witches Elphaba and Glinda begin their journeys.
Reason to Believe: Is it Cats or is it Chicago?
Reason to Doubt: Is it Chicago or is it Cats?
‘The Wild Robot’
What Happens: Roz the Robot lands on an animal island and learns how to feel.
Reason to Believe: A heartfelt and accessible AI movie. Plus, it’s already a hit.
Reason to Doubt: Only three animated films have ever been nominated; none have won.
Lim/SR