Putin and Xi Jinping Attend Welcoming Ceremony in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square During Putin’s State Visit in May.
Arrival of Thousands of North Korean Troops in Russia Sparks Concerns of Deployment to Ukraine, US Intelligence Reports
“Growing Anti-West Coordination Among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea Raises Alarm for US and Allies”
The arrival of North Korean troops in Russia for training has heightened concerns in the US and its allies about deepening military ties between nations opposing the West. North Korean forces may soon bolster Moscow’s efforts in Ukraine, as Iran has already done by supplying hundreds of drones and short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. China has been accused of providing “dual use” goods, such as microelectronics and machine tools, to aid Russia’s war machine.
Last week, the US imposed penalties on two Chinese firms for supplying complete weapons systems to Russia, further solidifying concerns. Despite denials from all three countries, this growing cooperation has led a US Congress-backed defense group to label Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as an “axis of growing malign partnerships.”
The fear is that these countries’ shared hostility toward the US is driving them to collaborate more closely, amplifying the threat not just in individual regions, but potentially on a global scale.
“North Korean Troops in Russia Could Impact Europe and Indo-Pacific, Says US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin”
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed Wednesday that North Korean troops are in Russia, marking the first official US acknowledgment of their presence. He warned that if North Korea becomes a co-belligerent, participating in the war on Russia’s behalf, it would pose a significant threat. “That is a very, very serious issue,” Austin said, adding that the repercussions would not only affect Europe but also have far-reaching impacts in the Indo-Pacific region.
“‘Driven by Survival Strategy’: Concerns Grow Over a New Axis of Power Forming”
Decades after the Axis powers of Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Imperial Japan, and the Cold War-era anti-West coalition, a new alignment of anti-Western forces appears to be emerging. Years after George W. Bush dubbed Iran, Iraq, and North Korea an “axis of evil,” a similar perception is taking shape today, with Russia’s war in Ukraine acting as the catalyst. This new alignment—driven by the survival strategies of nations like Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea—is seen as a rising threat to Western interests and global stability.
“A Dangerous Alignment: Nuclear Powers and Rising Threats in North Korea and Iran”
A potential alignment between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran would unite two long-time nuclear-armed powers with North Korea, which is believed to possess illegal nuclear warheads, and Iran, which the US claims could assemble a nuclear weapon within weeks. North Korea’s military partnership with Russia now connects the war in Europe with heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, where Kim Jong Un has intensified threats against South Korea, with which it remains technically at war.
Following intelligence reports of North Korean troops being deployed to Russia, South Korea hinted that it may consider supplying weapons to Ukraine, marking a significant shift in its stance. For North Korea, under Kim’s leadership, there is little to lose in providing Russia with artillery, short-range ballistic missiles, and troops, as it continues to ramp up its illicit nuclear weapons program. The growing cooperation between these nations, driven by survival strategies, poses a broader threat to global security.
“In Exchange for Arms, North Korea Likely Gains Food, Support for Missile and Space Programs”
In return for supplying artillery, missiles, and possibly troops to Russia, North Korea, facing severe international isolation and economic hardship, has likely received much-needed food, essential supplies, and potentially assistance in developing its space capabilities—an area that could bolster its sanctioned missile program.
Russia’s deepening reliance on drone warfare in Ukraine has further solidified its military ties with Iran, which has been supplying drones to Moscow. This relationship dates back to 2015 when both nations supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime during the Syrian conflict. For Tehran, supplying weapons to Russia amidst heavy Western sanctions and its involvement in the broader Middle Eastern conflict with US-backed Israel offers a chance to boost its defense industry while securing diplomatic backing from Moscow and Beijing.
Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping, who declared a “no limits” partnership with Putin just before the invasion of Ukraine, claims neutrality in the conflict. Although China has largely refrained from supplying direct lethal aid, the partnership remains crucial as China navigates its strategic interests amid growing tensions with the West.
“China Fills Gaps in Russian Supply Chain, Deepens Ties, But Broader Coordination Among Anti-West Countries Faces Limits”
China has stepped in to supply Russia with non-lethal goods, including dual-use products, while benefiting from discounted Russian energy. Beijing defends its “normal trade” with Moscow and continues to expand joint military drills and diplomatic relations, viewing Russia as a key ally in countering the West. However, despite cooperation among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, experts note there are clear limits to any broader coordination due to differing motivations and mutual trust issues.
Alex Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, explains that these bilateral relationships are driven by survival strategies and immediate geopolitical crises rather than deep, long-term alliances. “They all see the US as a common adversary, and that’s the glue that keeps them together,” Gabuev said. However, he cautions that meaningful coordination between all four nations is still far off, given their distinct interests and limited trust in one another.
The key question is whether these current alignments between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea can endure beyond the war in Ukraine and transform into more structured, coordinated partnerships. While these nations share a common adversary in the US and are cooperating on a bilateral level, it remains unclear if their alliances can develop into long-term, strategic coordination involving all four countries. Much will depend on the evolving geopolitical landscape and whether their shared interests can outweigh mutual distrust and individual priorities.
“Ukrainian Authorities Claim Missile Remains Found in Kharkiv Were Made in North Korea”
On January 2, Ukrainian authorities discovered the remains of an unidentified missile at the site of a Russian strike in Kharkiv, claiming that it was manufactured in North Korea. This incident raises concerns about the potential involvement of North Korea in providing military support to Russia amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
“The China Factor: A Crucial Element in Emerging Alliances Among Russia, North Korea, and Iran”
China’s role is pivotal in shaping the future alignment between Russia, North Korea, and Iran. As the most powerful player in this grouping and the leading trade partner for all three nations, China is viewed by the US as its primary adversary. As tensions with Washington escalate, Beijing has intensified efforts to challenge US global leadership and promote an international order favorable to itself and other autocracies.
Recent developments highlighted this dynamic during a summit in Kazan, where Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin reaffirmed their commitment to creating a “fairer” world. This partnership has extended to Iran, which has been integrated into this diplomatic framework, especially as it faces conflict with Israel and its proxies in the Middle East. Additionally, China, Russia, and Iran have conducted four joint naval drills since 2019, with China being Iran’s largest energy buyer.
However, Iran’s status as China’s favored partner in the Middle East is evolving as Beijing seeks closer ties with wealthier Gulf states, according to Jean-Loup Samaan from the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute. Similarly, China manages its relationship with North Korea cautiously, aware of the risks posed by a potentially empowered Pyongyang amid the Kim-Putin alignment, which could attract greater US scrutiny in the region.
When queried about the movement of North Korean troops into Russia, China’s foreign ministry stated it had no information on the matter. Although China exhibits aggressive behavior in the South China Sea and towards Taiwan, it may be hesitant to fully align with Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, notes that China is keen to avoid being openly associated with a grouping that could damage its image as a responsible global leader.
China aims to clarify that it does not see itself in a trilateral alliance with Russia and North Korea. Zhao emphasizes that China possesses more options and prefers working with a broader array of nations to effectively compete with the West, indicating that its relationships with these countries are more tactical than strategic.
“The China Factor: A Crucial Element in Emerging Alliances Among Russia, North Korea, and Iran”
China’s role is pivotal in shaping the future alignment between Russia, North Korea, and Iran. As the most powerful player in this grouping and the leading trade partner for all three nations, China is viewed by the US as its primary adversary. As tensions with Washington escalate, Beijing has intensified efforts to challenge US global leadership and promote an international order favorable to itself and other autocracies.
Recent developments highlighted this dynamic during a summit in Kazan, where Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin reaffirmed their commitment to creating a “fairer” world. This partnership has extended to Iran, which has been integrated into this diplomatic framework, especially as it faces conflict with Israel and its proxies in the Middle East. Additionally, China, Russia, and Iran have conducted four joint naval drills since 2019, with China being Iran’s largest energy buyer.
However, Iran’s status as China’s favored partner in the Middle East is evolving as Beijing seeks closer ties with wealthier Gulf states, according to Jean-Loup Samaan from the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute. Similarly, China manages its relationship with North Korea cautiously, aware of the risks posed by a potentially empowered Pyongyang amid the Kim-Putin alignment, which could attract greater US scrutiny in the region.
When queried about the movement of North Korean troops into Russia, China’s foreign ministry stated it had no information on the matter. Although China exhibits aggressive behavior in the South China Sea and towards Taiwan, it may be hesitant to fully align with Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, notes that China is keen to avoid being openly associated with a grouping that could damage its image as a responsible global leader.
China aims to clarify that it does not see itself in a trilateral alliance with Russia and North Korea. Zhao emphasizes that China possesses more options and prefers working with a broader array of nations to effectively compete with the West, indicating that its relationships with these countries are more tactical than strategic.
“‘A Real Risk’: Emerging Alliances Present Challenges for US Defense Strategy”
From a Western perspective, China’s continued economic support for North Korea, which defies UN sanctions, and its partnership with Russia—an ally that has threatened nuclear action in Ukraine—are often interpreted as tacit endorsements of these regimes. In July, a commission established by Congress to evaluate US defense strategy asserted that the partnership between China and Russia has expanded to include military and economic collaboration with Iran and North Korea. This coalition poses a significant risk, as the commission warned that conflicts involving any of these nations could escalate into multi-theater or global wars.
Despite these concerns, China maintains that its relationship with Russia is characterized by “non-alliance, non-confrontation, and not targeting any third party.” In response to these tensions, NATO has intensified relations with allies in the Asia-Pacific, recently including defense ministers from Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea in its discussions.
In the short term, Russia’s arms partnerships provide opportunities for both Iran and North Korea to acquire advanced weapons technologies, potentially facilitating their proliferation globally. Analysts also express concern that future conflicts, particularly those involving China, could see a coordinated effort among these four nations.
For instance, in a hypothetical scenario involving conflict in the South China Sea or over Taiwan, discussions arise about whether Beijing might leverage North Korea or Russia to create diversions in North Asia. However, experts caution against viewing this “axis” as a foregone conclusion. The relationships among these countries are largely opportunistic and lack deep ideological alignment or mutual trust.
There is also the potential for “more moderate behavior” from China, which could mitigate these risks, according to Sydney Seiler, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Yet, given the current dynamics, the threat remains palpable; the US may face an increasing likelihood of conflict involving multiple adversaries in the future.