The Voice News: Britain is entering “a new era of threat,” driven by rapid advances in drones, artificial intelligence, and other technologies that are fundamentally transforming warfare more than ever before, according to a government strategic defence review set to be published Monday.
The 130-page report, prepared by three advisers to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, will highlight the “immediate and pressing” threat posed by Russia, drawing heavily on lessons from the war in Ukraine. It will also focus on China, describing it not as an enemy but as a “sophisticated and persistent challenge,” at times cooperating with Moscow. Two other regional disruptors — Iran and North Korea — will also be spotlighted.
The review will depict the current military and security environment as the most severe since the Cold War, though it stops short of declaring the UK already at war with Russia despite escalating cyberattacks and sabotage.
Led by former NATO Secretary General George Robertson, the review is not expected to announce new defence spending commitments but will reaffirm Starmer’s earlier pledge to raise the defence budget to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and 3% in the following parliamentary term.
However, the report is likely to support calls for a significant increase in medium-term defence investment, potentially exceeding £50 billion in real terms, ahead of the NATO summit in June. At that summit, alliance members are discussing raising core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2032, with an additional 1.5% for cyber and infrastructure initiatives, partly responding to pressure from former US President Donald Trump.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg recently suggested that the summit might set a “high defence spend target” of around 5% in total, including more than 3% dedicated to pure defence.
The review will also address concerns about the size of the British Army. Recent figures show full-time trained soldiers at 70,860 — below the official target of 73,000 and the lowest since the Napoleonic era. Reports indicate the Ministry of Defence and Treasury are debating whether to commit to increasing army numbers.
A military source said Defence Secretary John Healey, who previously criticized the shrinking army, had secured agreement to raise troop numbers by a few thousand, though the Ministry of Defence declined to confirm this.
An increase of 5,000 soldiers, if recruitment targets are met, would cost roughly £2.5 billion annually for salaries, housing, equipment, and support. It would help the military meet anticipated growing overseas commitments.
Britain and France have agreed to lead a multinational “reassurance force” of up to 30,000 troops to help maintain peace and secure Ukrainian air and seaports if Russia agrees to a durable ceasefire. So far, Russian President Vladimir Putin has refused, despite calls from Donald Trump to end the conflict.
In addition to funding combat capabilities, the Ministry of Defence plans to allocate an extra £1.5 billion for urgent improvements to military housing, focusing on the worst 1,000 homes. There are also plans to create a volunteer home guard to protect sensitive sites such as airports from drone or other hostile attacks.
The review panel includes retired General Sir Richard Barrons and Fiona Hill, former Russia adviser to Donald Trump, who has previously argued that “structurally” World War Three has already begun, citing Russia’s actions in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East.
Chairing the panel, Lord Robertson described Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran as a “deadly quartet” increasingly collaborating. Iran has supplied drones to Russia, China provides weapon components, and North Korea has sent troops to fight in Ukraine.
Starmer is expected to present an outline of the review on Monday, with Defence Secretary Healey submitting the full document to Parliament shortly after.