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Navigating the Growing Risk of Naval Nuclear Deterrence and Cooperation Between India and Pakistan

India and Pakistan Naval Forces Navigate Growing Nuclear Deterrence and Cooperation in Indian Ocean

Nature of Contestation

Despite the traditionally antagonistic posture of the Indian and Pakistani Navies, fueled by broader bilateral tensions, both forces face similar nontraditional threats in the Indian Ocean. The region’s growing complexity is exacerbated by the increasing presence of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), pushing the Indian Navy to reassess its naval strategies, especially concerning Pakistan-China cooperation.

On August 29, 2024, the Indian Navy commissioned the INS Arighaat, its second nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarine (SSBN), advancing India’s sea-based deterrent capabilities. This submarine complements the INS Arihant, which had already proven India’s nuclear capabilities back in 2016. With rising naval challenges from neighboring Pakistan and China, the increase in India’s naval deterrent highlights the growing security dynamics in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). In this context, the Indian Navy has expanded its multilateral engagements, notably through Exercise Malabar and strengthened partnerships with key Western allies like the United States.

Pakistan’s nuclear-capable naval forces are less clear in comparison. The ambiguity surrounding Pakistan’s naval deterrent has drawn attention, particularly in the context of its broader undeclared nuclear doctrine. While India’s nuclear submarine fleet is becoming more advanced, Pakistan’s naval deterrence remains under development.

Scope for Cooperation

Despite ongoing political tensions, the Indian and Pakistani Navies have occasionally cooperated on nontraditional issues, especially concerning Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR). Recent operations included reciprocal rescues in 2024 when the Pakistani Navy rescued four Indian nationals, and the Indian Navy saved 23 Pakistanis from distressed vessels in the Arabian Sea. These acts of cooperation, albeit under distressing circumstances, underscore the potential for greater naval interactions.

Incidents at Sea (INCSEA)

A longstanding recommendation from South Asian maritime experts is for the implementation of an Incidents at Sea Agreement, similar to the U.S.-USSR model from 1972. Such an agreement would help ensure safe navigation for both countries’ naval vessels and aircraft, reducing the risk of accidental escalation. The importance of such agreements was acknowledged in the 1999 Lahore Declaration, which stressed the need for preventing incidents at sea post-nuclearization.

Bilateral Naval Interactions

Looking ahead, regardless of political relations, India and Pakistan would benefit from investing in more substantial naval engagements, particularly in recognizing the mutual nuclear risks present within their ongoing territorial disputes. The two nations’ Coast Guards already have a history of dialogue and an operational hotline (2003-2018), creating a foundation for future collaborations.

Both navies continue to engage through the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS), a grouping of 25 Indian Ocean littoral states that meets biennially. India’s upcoming chairmanship of the symposium (2025-2027) presents an opportunity for New Delhi to facilitate broader discussions aimed at reducing sea-based incidents and establishing cooperative protocols in the event of accidents, implicitly addressing the nuclear risk in the process.

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