Maldives Seeks Balance in India-China Relations Amid Economic Crisis
In a new analysis by @MaahilMohamed, the Maldives is urged to balance its relations with India and China through clear communication, diverse partnerships, and economic self-sufficiency amid recent policy shifts under President Mohamed Muizzu.
In January 2025, the Maldivian foreign and defense ministers made high-profile visits to New Delhi, signaling a striking recalibration of Maldivian foreign policy. This shift comes after the administration initially rose to power on an anti-India platform, which led to a sharp decline in Indian tourist arrivals and strained bilateral relations.
The analysis highlights that the Maldives has felt compelled to execute several reversals in its foreign policy as it navigates competition between India and China. The country’s unique geography and economic structure make it vulnerable to external geopolitical pressures. To successfully navigate between Beijing and New Delhi without compromising its sovereignty, Malé should establish clear communication with the two major powers about their unique roles in achieving the Maldives’ strategic objectives. Additionally, it should cultivate stronger ties with other partners in Southeast Asia and beyond and diversify its economy to promote greater self-sufficiency.
Maldivian Foreign Minister Abdulla Khaleel’s visit to India in early January was a significant opportunity for the Muizzu administration to rebuild trust with New Delhi. Initially, anti-India rhetoric had peaked, exacerbated by controversial comments by three Maldivian ministers who mocked Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This led to calls in India for a boycott of Maldivian tourism, resulting in a significant drop in Indian tourist arrivals. However, as the Maldives faced a fiscal crisis and China’s support failed to materialize, the government softened its anti-India rhetoric and sought assistance from New Delhi. India responded positively, extending rollovers to repay a treasury bond.
The rapprochement became evident in later months, with Muizzu describing India as “one of the closest allies” during a visit by Jaishankar in August 2024. Efforts in the Maldivian Parliament to review defense pacts between India and the Maldives have since stalled, suggesting that the Muizzu government wants to avoid antagonizing India.