May 7, 2025 6:51 am
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Is Russia Falling Behind in the Ukraine War Due to Weapon and Troop Shortages?

Russia’s military is now using donkeys for transportation on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine, according to pro-Russian military bloggers and sources. Former Russian Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev stated that using donkeys for transporting ammunition and supplies is normal. He told the Gazeta.ru website that sending a donkey is preferable to sending two soldiers by vehicle. Even if the donkey dies, the loss is minimal.

Last year, Russia began using motorcycles, dirt bikes, electric scooters, and civilian vehicles for attacks on Ukrainian positions. Observers say this shift has further slowed Russia’s progress. In the main battleground of southeastern Donbas, Russian advances have already become sluggish.

Shortage of Armored Vehicles

Military analysts told Al Jazeera that Ukrainian forces have already destroyed most of Russia’s tanks and armored vehicles, making it increasingly difficult for Moscow to replace them. Although Russia is repairing unused and non-functional vehicles from its Soviet-era stockpile, Nikolai Mitrokhin, a researcher at Germany’s Bremen University, noted that armored vehicles are becoming inoperable at an alarming rate. The pace of new production and repairs is far behind the rate of losses. Russia’s stockpile of offensive armored vehicles may only last a few more months.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones are destroying both armored and civilian vehicles, causing major logistical issues. To prevent drones from entering tank hatches, Russian troops are using metal mesh and rubber covers, which Ukrainian forces mockingly call “Royal BBQ.”

Defense analyst Pavel Luzin from the Washington D.C.-based think tank Center for European Policy Analysis said that Russia cannot produce more than 60 tanks per year. “We are not even talking in the hundreds,” he said. The biggest problem is producing turrets and guns, and since Russia can no longer access European infrared thermal imaging and targeting systems, they are now using less reliable Chinese components.

However, a former Ukrainian general believes that Russia’s armored vehicle stockpile could last another two years. Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff, stated that Russian defense factories continue to repair old tanks. Considering the current rate of destruction, Russia still has about two years’ worth of armored vehicles, but the number of modern tanks and other advanced weapons will continue to decline.

According to The Insider, an independent Russia-focused media outlet, Russia currently has fewer than 7,000 tanks and armored vehicles, which is 20 times less than the 140,000 tanks the Soviet Union had in 1990.

Slow Progress in Donbas

This shortage of armored vehicles has already slowed Russia’s efforts to capture Donbas. According to Ukrainian Telegram channel Oko Gora, in early February, Russian attacks decreased by one-third, and the amount of territory they captured was four times smaller than in January, shrinking to only 21 square kilometers. For the first time in months, Ukrainian forces managed to launch a counterattack, reclaiming some areas around the strategic southeastern city of Pokrovsk.

Despite the artillery shortage, Russia has increased its annual ammunition production to 3 million rounds—three times more than before. Additionally, North Korea has reportedly supplied Russia with several million more rounds. Pyongyang and Tehran have also sent Russia hundreds of missiles, which are being used alongside Russian-made missiles to strike Ukrainian cities. However, some observers question the effectiveness of these missiles.

Air Defense Challenges

The Russia-Ukraine border is about 2,300 kilometers long. Recently, Ukrainian drones and missiles have struck military factories, bases, airports, and oil refineries deep inside Russia, from the Arctic to the Black Sea coast. Analyst Mitrokhin stated that Moscow has failed to establish parallel air defense lines and has left many critical sites unprotected.

Lieutenant General Romanenko pointed out that while Russia has warplanes and advanced missile defense systems, it cannot quickly or significantly expand its capabilities. On the other hand, Ukraine’s capabilities are increasing as Kyiv ramps up the development and production of drones and missiles.

Human “Camels” on the Battlefield

Along with donkeys, Russia is also accused of using so-called “human camels” in battle. These are soldiers forced to carry large amounts of ammunition and run toward Ukrainian positions, with little chance of survival.

Pro-Kremlin war reporters claim that newly recruited soldiers are being sent to the battlefield with minimal training, leading to high casualties and retirements among experienced troops. Pro-Kremlin analyst Viktor Murakhovsky wrote on Telegram that most media reports about soldiers fulfilling their duties also mention their deaths. “Willingly or unwillingly, this creates the impression that to be a hero, one must die like a hero,” he said.

The Kremlin insists there is no problem with troop recruitment, claiming that nearly 600,000 Russian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine. However, the cost of recruiting each soldier has increased more than tenfold since 2022. The signing bonus is now around $30,000, and the starting monthly salary is $2,000. In cases of serious injury or amputation, soldiers receive about $40,000 in compensation.

Meanwhile, reports suggest that instead of announcing a new mobilization, the Kremlin is forcing migrant workers to enlist as “volunteers.” The independent news outlet Verstka reported that soldiers whose contracts are about to expire are being forced to extend their service.

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