May 21, 2025 3:09 pm
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Is China the Unexpected Winner in the India-Pakistan Conflict?

The recent four-day military clash between India and Pakistan, which ended in a ceasefire, has left both sides claiming victory. But an unexpected beneficiary may be China’s defense industry.

What Sparked the Conflict?

The confrontation began on 7 May, when India launched airstrikes on what it described as “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan. This was in response to a brutal militant attack on 22 April in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, where 26 people — mostly tourists — were killed.

India accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers, which Islamabad denied. In retaliation, both countries carried out aerial maneuvers involving drones, missiles, and fighter jets.

China’s Fighter Jets in Action

India used French Rafale and Russian-made jets, while Pakistan deployed J-10 and JF-17 aircraft, both co-developed or supplied by China.

Pakistan claims it shot down six Indian jets, including Rafales. India has not confirmed or denied this. Indian Air Force (IAF) Air Marshal AK Bharti responded only to say that losses are part of combat and all Indian pilots returned safely.

A Boost for China’s Arms Industry?

The use of Chinese fighter jets in actual combat — especially the J-10 — is being seen as a major showcase of Beijing’s defense capabilities. Shares of Avic Chengdu Aircraft, which makes the J-10, surged up to 40% after reports of their performance in the conflict.

Chinese military expert Zhou Bo, a former PLA colonel, described this as a “big advertisement” for Chinese weapons. Meanwhile, Carlotta Rinaudo, a researcher in Italy, noted that perception alone has given China a propaganda win, regardless of the actual facts on the ground.

Western Experts Urge Caution

Not all analysts agree that Chinese jets outperformed India’s. Professor Walter Ladwig, from King’s College London, said there’s no clear evidence the J-10 outclassed the Rafale. He believes India’s mission may have avoided escalation rather than sought air superiority.

Even so, reports suggest India struck 11 Pakistani air bases, including the highly sensitive Nur Khan air base near Rawalpindi, and another deep target in Bholari, near Karachi. These strikes were reportedly precise and aimed at disabling runways.

Pakistan’s Response

Pakistan also launched air and missile strikes on Indian positions, but India said those attacks caused no serious damage.

As tensions escalated, the US and allies intervened diplomatically, pressing both sides to halt hostilities.

What Does This Mean for China?

Pakistan is a close ally of China, which has invested over $50 billion through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A weak Pakistan is not in China’s interest, so its support comes with strategic importance.

China has long been criticized for producing low-quality weapons. For example:

Myanmar grounded its JF-17 jets due to technical issues.

Nigeria reported problems with F-7 jets from China.

But this latest conflict has allowed China to showcase its combat systems in a real war setting — something it hasn’t had many chances to do.

India’s Defense Challenge

India, meanwhile, is now being urged to speed up domestic defense production and expand its arsenal. Chinese-made jets used by Pakistan were older models, while China has already developed advanced stealth fighters like the J-20, capable of evading radar.

With ongoing border tensions between India and China, including a deadly 2020 clash in Ladakh, New Delhi is under pressure to upgrade its military capabilities quickly.

For now, while the India-Pakistan conflict has no clear military victor, China’s defense industry has emerged with a stronger global image — at least in perception — possibly shifting the balance in the global arms trade.

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