As the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit unfolds in Islamabad, the announcement that India’s External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, will represent Prime Minister Narendra Modi has raised eyebrows. However, this visit is unlikely to open the door to any potential diplomatic re-engagement between India and Pakistan. The status quo is expected to prevail as the underlying strategic imperatives shaping the relationship remain unchanged.
Historical visits, such as those by Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1988, Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj in 2015, and Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari in 2023, serve as indicators of what to expect from Jaishankar’s visit. These visits, while momentarily thawing relations, ultimately failed to bring about lasting change due to domestic politics and external events.
Jaishankar’s visit, similar to Bhutto-Zardari’s, has already de-linked India-Pakistan issues from the SCO agenda, with both sides maintaining minimal bilateral contact. The events of August 2019, including India’s abrogation of Article 370, marked a significant turning point in the relationship, leading to increased hostilities and a new era of no engagement.
Despite changes in government in Pakistan, the policy towards India has remained unchanged. Backchannel efforts in early 2021 led to a reaffirmation of the 2003 Ceasefire Understanding on the Line of Control (LoC), but no substantive progress was made. Both sides have limited incentives and no compulsion to engage in substantial bilateral dialogue, with military tensions down but rhetorical duels continuing.
In this new world, Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad is likely to be another inconsequential visit for the bilateral relationship, making headlines for a week before India and Pakistan revert to their default setting of no war-no peace.