Modi’s Connection with Trump Seen as Key to Navigating U.S.-India Relations
As Donald Trump prepares to assume office after a surprising victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, India faces challenges in preserving its close ties with the U.S., especially with Trump’s “America First” stance, which could lead to renewed trade tariffs and stricter immigration policies. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, hopes that his personal rapport with Trump will help temper potential friction.
Impact of Trade Tariffs on U.S.-India Economic Relations
Trump’s campaign promises to impose higher tariffs to protect American jobs and industries pose a risk to U.S.-India trade relations. Bilateral trade between the two nations reached nearly $120 billion last year, with India maintaining a $30 billion surplus. Analysts caution that Trump’s protectionist policies could disrupt key Indian export sectors, including information technology, pharmaceuticals, and automotive.
Experts, like Biswajit Dhar from New Delhi’s Council for Social Development, warn that the implementation of Trump’s campaign rhetoric on trade could strain relations, potentially reversing years of progress. Michael Kugelman from the Wilson Center adds that the Biden administration’s low-profile approach to trade imbalances with India may now come to an end.
Concerns Over Trump’s Anti-Immigration Stance
India may also face renewed challenges in addressing immigration issues, particularly concerning the H-1B visa program, which is crucial for Indian professionals in the U.S. During Trump’s previous tenure, denial rates for H-1B visas surged, impacting thousands of Indian workers. The return of Trump’s tough immigration policies could create another strain on the U.S.-India relationship.
Former diplomat Anil Trigunayat suggests that while India hopes for a more open approach, Trump’s stance on immigration is unlikely to soften. Nevertheless, having faced these challenges before, India is better prepared this time around, he noted.
Strategic Balancing with Russia and China Remains Key
The Biden administration’s pressure on India to distance itself from Russia over the Ukraine conflict may lessen under Trump, who has favored diplomatic solutions over military confrontations. India’s growing trade with Russia, which reached $65.6 billion this year, could continue with fewer repercussions from Washington. Kugelman suggests that the focus on countering China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region will remain a unifying factor in U.S.-India relations, despite potential disagreements on other issues.
Navigating Allegations of Targeting U.S.-Based Separatist
One significant tension point could arise from allegations that Indian agents targeted a U.S.-based Sikh separatist. Experts suggest that Trump, known for his nationalist approach, might take a strong public stance on the issue. However, Harsh Pant of the Observer Research Foundation believes that Modi’s rapport with Trump could help manage the fallout more effectively than under the Biden administration.
Modi-Trump Bonhomie Seen as Diplomatic Advantage
With a history of personal diplomacy, Modi’s established relationship with Trump could prove instrumental in preserving and strengthening ties. Walter Ladwig from King’s College and Kugelman agree that Modi’s diplomatic style and close ties with Trump may offer India a valuable access point to the White House.