Sadrul Ahmed Khan
With Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, many countries, including Bangladesh, could experience significant changes in their bilateral relations with the United States. From immigration policies to climate funding, and trade dynamics to humanitarian aid, the effects of a second Trump term will likely impact Bangladesh across multiple sectors. Here’s a detailed look at the eight critical areas where these shifts may be felt.
- Immigration Risks for Undocumented Bangladeshis
Under Trump’s previous administration, U.S. immigration policies became notably stringent, affecting undocumented immigrants from many countries, including Bangladesh. For Bangladeshis living in the U.S. without proper documentation, this could mean an increased risk of deportation or detention. Trump has consistently emphasized border security and immigration restrictions, and there’s every indication that a second term would bring a continuation of these hardline policies. For Bangladesh, this means that undocumented citizens in the U.S. could be repatriated, impacting families and communities in both countries and potentially increasing Bangladesh’s burden of reintegration support for returnees. - Potential Cuts in U.S. Aid to Bangladesh
The United States has been one of the major sources of foreign aid to Bangladesh, providing substantial funding for public health initiatives, development programs, and critical humanitarian support for the Rohingya refugee crisis. However, the Trump administration has often prioritized budget cuts for foreign aid, and if the U.S. reduces its funding, Bangladesh could face a strain in sustaining these programs. This potential reduction would have far-reaching consequences, affecting millions of Bangladeshis who rely on health services funded by the U.S. and straining resources for Rohingya refugees, a vulnerable population hosted by Bangladesh. Aid cuts could necessitate increased funding from other international donors or internal reallocation, challenging an already limited budget. - Implications of Reduced UN Funding on Bangladeshi Peacekeepers
The U.S. currently contributes approximately 22% of the United Nations’ general budget and about 28% of the UN’s peacekeeping operations, a significant share that supports peacekeeping forces worldwide. Bangladesh, a leading contributor to UN peacekeeping missions, could feel the effects of any reduction in U.S. funding to the UN. For Bangladeshi peacekeepers, this could mean fewer resources, potentially impacting their safety and operational effectiveness in conflict zones. Moreover, cuts in peacekeeping budgets could lead to a scaling back of missions, affecting both employment and income for Bangladeshi soldiers involved in these missions. - Increased Trade Opportunities Amid U.S.-China Tensions
Amid increasing U.S.-China trade tensions, a Trump-led administration is likely to continue imposing tariffs and restrictions on Chinese imports, creating new opportunities for countries like Bangladesh. Bilateral trade between the U.S. and Bangladesh currently stands at around $12 billion and could expand if U.S. companies shift away from Chinese manufacturing. Bangladesh’s robust textile and apparel industry, as well as its growing capacity in electronics and pharmaceuticals, places it in a strong position to benefit from redirected U.S. investments and trade. The expansion of U.S.-Bangladesh trade would boost the Bangladeshi economy, although it will also require proactive trade agreements and compliance with international standards to sustain growth. - Eased Foreign Policy Pressures in the War on Terror
Under Trump’s “America First” approach, the focus on foreign military engagement was minimized, which is likely to continue in a second term. This shift could result in decreased expectations for Bangladesh to engage in the “War on Terror” or regional security initiatives, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), which includes the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India. For Bangladesh, this could mean less diplomatic pressure to align with U.S. security interests, giving it more freedom to navigate regional alliances and focus on its national interests without the complexities associated with U.S.-backed security policies in the region. - Ongoing Human Rights Scrutiny and Sanctions
The Trump administration’s stance on human rights and governance has involved direct action, as seen in the sanctions on Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and specific individuals associated with human rights abuses. These sanctions are likely to continue, particularly if human rights issues remain a point of international concern. This could pose challenges for Bangladesh, especially as it seeks to improve its global image and strengthen its diplomatic ties. Continued scrutiny from the U.S. on human rights could mean that Bangladesh’s security apparatus faces ongoing constraints in international operations and financial transactions, possibly impacting internal security measures and Bangladesh’s collaboration with other countries. - Reduced Climate Change Funding
The Trump administration has historically downplayed the urgency of climate change, pulling the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement and cutting climate-related funding. For Bangladesh, a country that is among the most vulnerable to climate impacts such as flooding and rising sea levels, the potential reduction in U.S. support for climate initiatives could severely limit its adaptation efforts. Bangladesh relies on international funding to support infrastructure projects aimed at disaster resilience and climate adaptation. Without U.S. funding, Bangladesh may face delays in implementing critical projects, potentially leaving vulnerable communities exposed to the harsh realities of climate change. - Strained U.S.-Bangladesh Government Relations
Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Professor Muhammad Yunus, may not enjoy the same rapport with Trump as it did with the Biden administration. Yunus, who has previously voiced criticism of Trump, could face diplomatic challenges if those past criticisms influence Trump’s policy stance toward Bangladesh. Trump’s recent critical comments on social media about Bangladesh hint at potential tensions in U.S.-Bangladesh relations. Additionally, the possibility of an early general election in Bangladesh could add complexity to these diplomatic dynamics, particularly if the interim government seeks U.S. support or if there are human rights concerns surrounding the election process.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Period for U.S.-Bangladesh Relations
With a range of critical areas likely to be impacted, Bangladesh faces a pivotal period in its relationship with the United States. From immigration policies affecting Bangladeshi communities abroad to potential economic opportunities amid U.S.-China tensions, and from critical climate funding to diplomatic rapport, a second Trump administration brings both challenges and opportunities. For Bangladesh, navigating these complexities will require proactive diplomatic strategies, a strong emphasis on internal development, and a willingness to adapt to shifting global dynamics. As the world watches how U.S. policies under Trump’s leadership evolve, Bangladesh will need to position itself strategically to protect its interests, leverage new opportunities, and mitigate potential risks.
Squadron Leader (Rtd)
Sadrul Ahmed Khan,
Former Deputy Serjeant-At-Arms, Bangladesh Parliament.