The sudden collapse of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a seismic shift in the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape, one that could ripple through the region’s existing conflicts, including the ongoing Israel-Palestine war. Assad’s ousting by opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has left a vacuum in Syria, prompting questions about how this change will affect the region’s fragile power dynamics.
A New Era for Israel’s Northern Border
For Israel, Assad’s downfall represents the loss of a familiar adversary. While Assad was an established foe, his regime provided a degree of predictability. The fall of Damascus to HTS forces introduces new uncertainties along Israel’s northern border, particularly near the occupied Golan Heights.
The end of Assad’s rule weakens Iran’s influence in Syria, a strategic setback for Tehran. Iran has long used Syria as a “land bridge” to supply its proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. The absence of direct Iranian intervention to save Assad, despite their historical alliance, reflects Tehran’s own vulnerabilities, including losses in its conflict with Israel and internal economic pressures.
Israel’s government will likely view the disruption of Iran’s logistical routes as a strategic gain. However, it also faces the challenge of dealing with potential instability and clashes near its borders. HTS, an Islamist group with links to al-Qaeda, poses a different type of threat than Assad’s regime, requiring Israel to adapt its military strategies.
Impact on Regional Alliances and Iran
The fall of Assad has broader implications for Iran’s regional ambitions. Without Syria as a reliable ally, Iran’s ability to project power in the eastern Mediterranean diminishes. This development may embolden Israel to intensify its military campaigns against Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah, which remains a significant player in the Israel-Palestine conflict.
However, Tehran’s decision to refrain from supporting Assad militarily could also signal a pragmatic recalibration. With its strained resources and a fragile domestic situation, Iran may focus on consolidating power at home and avoiding direct confrontations. This inward shift could momentarily ease tensions in the region, offering a narrow window for other actors to redefine their roles.
Russia’s Waning Influence
Russia, a staunch ally of Assad, also faces a strategic blow. While its military bases in Tartous and Hmeimim remain, their security is now precarious. Moscow’s decision not to intervene in Assad’s final days suggests either an overstretched capacity, given its ongoing war in Ukraine, or a calculated retreat to preserve its regional assets without escalating further conflicts.
For Israel, a weakened Russian presence in Syria could limit Moscow’s ability to mediate between Israel and Iran. This vacuum might embolden other players, such as Turkey or Saudi Arabia, to step in, potentially shifting the focus of regional diplomacy.
Turkey and the New Syrian Reality
Turkey emerges as a potential beneficiary of Assad’s fall, given its support for some opposition factions. However, the situation introduces complexities. While Ankara has ties to HTS, it does not control the group, which complicates its ambitions in Syria. Turkey may also face pressure from Arab states wary of HTS’s Islamist roots.
For Israel, Turkey’s strengthened influence in Syria could present both opportunities and challenges. Ankara’s focus on Kurdish autonomy and its relationship with Islamist factions might align or clash with Israeli interests, depending on how the situation evolves.
Arab States and Regional Stability
The reaction of Arab states like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq will be pivotal in determining Syria’s trajectory post-Assad. These countries, which had recently reconciled with Assad, must now contend with HTS and other opposition factions. Their approach will shape the new Syrian regime’s stability and its role in the wider Middle East.
If Arab states prioritize rebuilding Syria under a non-sectarian framework, it could reduce external meddling in the region’s conflicts. However, if factions like HTS maintain control, the resulting instability could spill over into neighboring countries, exacerbating existing tensions, including those between Israel and Palestine.
Potential Impact on the Israel-Palestine Conflict
While Assad’s fall is not directly linked to the Israel-Palestine conflict, the broader geopolitical shifts it triggers could have indirect consequences. The weakening of Iran and Hezbollah may reduce the threat of a northern front against Israel, allowing it to concentrate resources on Gaza.
Conversely, the instability in Syria could lead to new security threats, forcing Israel to divide its attention and military presence. If HTS consolidates power near Israel’s border, the group’s Islamist ideology and potential for cross-border clashes could add a new dimension to Israel’s security calculus.
The realignment of regional powers, particularly the diminished roles of Iran and Russia, may also influence how Arab states engage with the Israel-Palestine issue. A focus on stabilizing Syria could shift diplomatic energy away from Gaza, prolonging the current ceasefire negotiations.
Conclusion
The fall of Assad heralds a new chapter for the Middle East, with significant implications for regional stability and power dynamics. For Israel, the immediate gains of weakening Iran are offset by the risks of instability and the emergence of unpredictable actors. As the region recalibrates, the long-term impact on the Israel-Palestine conflict will depend on how key players—Turkey, Iran, Arab states, and Israel—navigate the evolving landscape.