PARIS – Veteran centrist Francois Bayrou has been appointed as France’s new prime minister, stepping into a deeply polarized political landscape and facing the immediate challenge of navigating a divided parliament to pass the 2025 budget.
Bayrou, 73, who previously served as education minister in the 1990s, replaces Michel Barnier, whose government was ousted by a no-confidence vote – the first such move since 1962. As President Emmanuel Macron’s fourth prime minister this year, Bayrou is seen as a consensus-builder, but his appointment has drawn criticism from the opposition, with left-wing parties calling him “more of the same.”
One of Bayrou’s earliest tasks will be naming a government that, like his predecessor’s, will hold minority support in the National Assembly. The assembly is dominated by three warring factions: Macron’s centrist bloc, the far-right National Rally, and the left-wing NUPES coalition.
Budget Battle Ahead
The failed passage of the 2025 budget led to Barnier’s downfall, and Bayrou will face similar obstacles. While there is temporary cross-party support for emergency funding to avoid a government shutdown, long-term fiscal consolidation remains contentious.
Bayrou has echoed Macron’s call for tackling France’s rising debt, describing it as both a “moral and financial problem.” Yet accommodating opposition demands to win their support for the budget could result in higher fiscal costs, analysts warn.
Far-right leader Jordan Bardella reaffirmed his party’s opposition to specific budget measures, such as indexing pensions to inflation. Meanwhile, left-wing leaders threaten to use no-confidence votes if Bayrou employs special constitutional powers to bypass parliament, as Macron has done before.
Mounting Challenges
Bayrou faces immense challenges beyond the budget impasse. His government must address a projected 6.1% budget deficit for 2024, manage military spending tied to the Ukraine conflict, and support France’s struggling industrial sector, all while keeping trade unions from reigniting protests over pension reforms.
Macron has urged “Republican forces” to unite but resisted Socialist calls for a leftist prime minister, citing the need to protect his earlier liberal economic reforms, including changes to the pension system. Despite Macron’s efforts, opposition leaders are sharpening their critiques of his administration.
Rising Far-Right Momentum
The far-right National Rally continues to gain traction, with polls showing its leader, Marine Le Pen, leading ahead of the 2027 presidential election, holding voter support levels not seen before.
Even if Bayrou manages to outmaneuver political opponents, his government faces a herculean task in implementing reforms while restoring fiscal discipline in a fractious and restive political environment.