March 2, 2025: For years, Russia’s Hmeimim Air Base in Syria was a hub for military operations, with warplanes launching strikes to support Bashar al-Assad’s regime. But the scene has changed dramatically with Assad’s departure. Now, former rebels from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Islamist force guard the entrances to both Hmeimim and the Soviet-era Tartous Naval Base, 60 km (37 miles) south. These bases are integral to Russia’s military reach in the Middle East and Africa.
The future of these bases rests in the hands of Syria’s interim President Ahmed Sharaa, who seeks to renegotiate the Assad-era leases to secure better terms. While he does not seem to want to shut Russia out entirely, Sharaa aims for diplomatic backing and financial compensation in exchange for continued Russian presence.
Assad fled to Russia in December, and the new Islamist Syrian leadership is now negotiating with Moscow. The talks have included demands related to billions of dollars of debt, the future of Assad, and the repatriation of Syrian money alleged to be in Russia.
Both parties recognize the benefits of putting enmity aside. Despite eased EU and U.S. sanctions, Syria’s war-torn economy still needs traditional Russian supplies of weapons, fuel, and wheat. Russian influence remains entrenched, and Russia’s military presence in the Mediterranean is vital for its political leverage in the region.
In a recent meeting, Sharaa sought the cancellation of loans contracted under Assad and urged the repatriation of Syrian funds allegedly deposited in Moscow. Russian officials denied the existence of such funds, but the meeting was described as constructive.
With Syria’s rebuilding costs projected at $400 billion, Moscow may offer humanitarian aid instead of direct compensation. Russia’s ambassador to the U.N. stated that their alliance with Syria is not tied to any regime. Meanwhile, the fate of Assad and his associates in Moscow remains a delicate matter.
As Syria’s interim government navigates its path forward, the country’s leaders are willing to make peace even with former enemies, recognizing Russia’s importance in the region’s complex geopolitical landscape.