As Donald Trump prepares for a potential second term in office, the international film industry is weighing the possible impacts on everything from global trade to U.S. production incentives.
One indie industry professional expressed their concerns saying, “When I saw Trump had won, I just wanted to put my head down and weep… but in terms of the business, we’ll have to wait and see how much changes.”
The biggest worry centers on international trade, especially U.S.-China relations. Trump’s protectionist stance could introduce new barriers for Hollywood’s access to China, which remains a key market despite declining demand for U.S. content. In 2024, American films earned $797 million in China, with blockbusters like Venom: The Last Dance raking in $76 million. Trump’s campaign promise to increase tariffs on Chinese goods could lead to retaliation, potentially affecting Hollywood’s earnings.
Interestingly, some in China aren’t overly concerned. Simone Yang, a Beijing-based producer, points out that Trump has a unique popularity in China due to his controversial policies, adding that his business ties with figures like Elon Musk have drawn attention. Still, the film industries of both nations may need to work harder to align their interests.
Another concern is the future of U.S.-Latin American collaborations. Guillermo Blanco, CEO of TheGseven, fears restrictive immigration policies could limit joint productions. However, he also sees this as an opportunity to tell more authentic, culturally diverse stories.
On a brighter note, state-level film production incentives in Republican-controlled states—such as Texas, Kentucky, and Oklahoma—could continue to support the industry, regardless of the federal government’s stance.
International producers, like Jim Robison of Lunar Pictures, highlight the complicated patchwork of production incentives across U.S. states but hope the industry will be left alone by Washington.
In Washington, the relationship between Hollywood and the U.S. government may shift under a second Trump term. “During the Biden years, unions were a big part of our dialogue with D.C.,” says Jean Prewitt, CEO of the IFTA. “It’s unclear how this will play out with Trump.”
Despite uncertainty, the film industry is known for its resilience. As George Hamilton of Protagonist Pictures puts it, “We’ve weathered strikes, COVID, multiple presidencies—and we’re still here. The world still needs movies.”
