China’s population has declined for the third consecutive year in 2024. The East Asian superpower is now facing an escalating demographic crisis. On Friday (January 17), China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the country’s population decreased by 1.39 million over the past 12 months, bringing the total to 1.408 billion. This decline persists as the death rate surpasses the birth rate, according to Qatar-based media outlet Al Jazeera.
China’s population has been gradually declining since the 1980s. However, 2022 marked the first year when the death rate exceeded the birth rate. A similar situation occurred in 1961 during the “Great Leap Forward,” when a famine caused the deaths of 20 million people.
Despite Beijing’s various efforts to boost the birth rate, this long-term trend has not been reversed. The NBS noted in its report that external environmental challenges are growing, domestic demand is low, some enterprises face production and operational difficulties, and the economy remains under pressure.
To increase the birth rate, Beijing has implemented several measures. Efforts have included labeling unmarried women as “leftover” to accelerate the marriage process and tightening divorce and abortion regulations. Additionally, couples are being subsidized to cover childcare expenses.
Following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2023, the marriage rate increased by 12.4% annually, which slightly boosted the birth rate in some areas during the first half of 2024.
The year 2024 was the “Year of the Dragon” in China, traditionally associated with a slight rise in birth rates across various Asian countries. However, experts note that the overall trend remains downward.
In 2016, China officially abolished its “one-child policy.” While the policy was effective in controlling population growth for decades, it created demographic imbalances due to cultural preferences for male children.
Although China allowed up to three children per family in 2021, the high cost of urban living, slow economic growth, and high youth unemployment rates have discouraged younger generations from having children.
China’s economy grew by 5% in 2024, meeting government forecasts, but GDP growth is expected to slow further in the coming years.
To address the demographic crisis, China is implementing plans to raise the mandatory retirement age. For men, it has been increased from 60 to 63, and for women, depending on their profession, from 55 to 58.
China is not the only country grappling with demographic challenges. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are also experiencing population declines for similar reasons. Restrictions on immigration and the prohibition of medical services like IVF for unmarried women further complicate these issues.