On February 20, at a Group of 20 (G-20) meeting in South Africa, China expressed its support for U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to strike a deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. This stance came as U.S. allies rallied around Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Less than a month into his presidency, Trump has dramatically shifted U.S. policy on the war, moving away from a campaign to isolate Moscow. This shift included a phone call to Russian President Vladimir Putin and talks between senior U.S. and Russian officials that have sidelined Ukraine.
On February 19, Trump denounced Zelensky as a “dictator,” prompting statements of support for the Ukrainian President from G-20 members such as Australia, Germany, and Britain.
“China supports all efforts conducive to peace (in Ukraine), including the recent consensus reached between the United States and Russia,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told other G-20 foreign ministers gathered in Johannesburg, according to a statement from his ministry. “China is willing to continue playing a constructive role in the political resolution of the crisis,” he added.
Wang did not reiterate his earlier point made at the Munich Security Conference on February 14 that all stakeholders in the Russia-Ukraine conflict should participate in any peace talks.
“China is generally happy to see the easing of relations between the United States and Russia and the shift of the Ukrainian crisis to a political solution, but will pay close attention to the direction of negotiations and the direction of easing of U.S.-Russian relations,” said Dr. Cui Hongjian, head of European Union studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University. “If China participates in mediation, it can reduce the risk of the United States using the easing of relations with Russia to harm China’s interests.”
He added that Wang’s previous remark that all stakeholders should be included in talks covers not only Ukraine and Europe, but also China and Global South countries.
Global South countries refer to developing, emerging, or lower-income nations, mostly in the southern hemisphere.
However, other analysts are skeptical of China’s substantive involvement beyond rhetorical statements at this stage, given Beijing’s aversion to taking geopolitical risks.
China is “happy not to be called on the spot to deliver” because it does not know what Trump will demand, said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre. “Trump wanted China’s involvement initially, but now he has spoken to Putin. He is under the impression that he doesn’t need China to get a deal with Putin, and Putin will give him a perfect and better deal going forward.”
Wang said China-Russia relations are “moving towards a higher level and broader dimension” during a meeting.