The Voice News: In August 2024, a massive uprising in Bangladesh forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the ruling Awami League (AL) from power. The sudden political upheaval has raised international concerns about growing instability and the potential for large-scale, identity-based violence.
Background: A Nation on Alert
Bangladesh currently ranks 13th among 168 countries at risk for mass killing, according to the Early Warning Project. The country has long grappled with political volatility and identity-based tensions—roots that trace back to the Partition of 1947 and the bloody 1971 Liberation War. For years, bitter rivalry between the AL and opposition BNP has made Bangladesh’s political scene dangerously polarized.
Though the 2018 elections passed without significant violence, the situation has drastically changed. The AL’s ousting in 2024, followed by the formation of a transitional government, has reopened fears of revenge attacks and group-based violence.
Key Risk Factors
Bangladesh faces multiple structural vulnerabilities:
Historical Identity Violence: Past political crises have often sparked attacks on minority groups, particularly Hindus.
Authoritarian Legacy: The Hasina regime was accused of widespread human rights abuses, including deadly crackdowns on 2024 protesters.
Weak Institutions: Corruption and a fragile legal system make accountability and justice elusive.
Mob Violence: After the uprising, mobs attacked individuals perceived as AL supporters, disproportionately targeting minorities. Over 1,000 Hindu-owned homes and businesses were destroyed. The Ahmadiyya and indigenous communities also faced renewed persecution.
While violence has declined, fear lingers—especially among minorities—and many attackers remain unpunished.
Challenges for the Interim Government
Led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the interim government has promised reforms in policing, electoral laws, and justice. It has pledged to end violence and hold perpetrators accountable. However, rights groups warn of setbacks:
Police abuses, while reduced, continue.
Crackdowns on independent media and civil society have intensified.
Misinformation, especially from Indian outlets, has worsened communal tensions and spread panic across borders.
Communities at Risk
Minority groups remain vulnerable:
Hindus continue to be scapegoated for political conflicts.
Ahmadiyyas face pressure from fundamentalist groups.
Indigenous peoples in the Chittagong Hill Tracts are threatened by land grabs and violence.
Rohingya refugees, fleeing renewed violence in Myanmar, face hostility and political exploitation ahead of elections.
These trends have broader regional implications, straining Bangladesh-India relations and fueling Islamophobic narratives in Indian media.
What Lies Ahead: 2025/2026 Elections
General elections are expected between late 2025 and mid-2026, depending on reform progress. While elections offer a path to stability, Bangladesh’s history of violent power transitions raises concerns.
Several new political dynamics are emerging:
The AL has been banned from participating.
A youth-led National Citizens Party (NCP) has risen in popularity.
The Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), an Islamist group, has split from the BNP, raising fears of religious polarization.
Protests and hartals continue, and the risk of pre-election violence remains high.
Room for Resilience
Despite the risks, there are signs of hope:
Civic groups have mobilized to protect vulnerable communities.
Public support for reforms and accountability is strong.
If the interim government delivers on its promises, it could pave the way for a more inclusive and stable democracy.
However, economic hardship and restrictions on free expression threaten to erode these gains.
Conclusion
The immediate violence after the Hasina government’s fall has subsided, but tensions remain high. As Bangladesh moves toward elections, the country stands at a critical juncture.
Monitoring hate-based attacks—especially on Hindus, Ahmadiyyas, and indigenous groups—is essential. Any rise in scale, frequency, or state involvement would signal growing atrocity risks.
To reduce the danger, the international community must engage constructively: supporting electoral reforms, promoting civic space, and safeguarding minority rights in Bangladesh’s fragile transition.