As Donald Trump prepares for his second term as U.S. President, India might find itself uniquely positioned to leverage its relationship with Washington, thanks to its “pro-America” stance within the BRICS bloc. Trump’s reputation as a “tariff man,” however, signals challenges ahead, particularly for India’s trade ties.
Trump’s Tariff Threats and India’s Role in BRICS
Earlier this month, Trump targeted BRICS nations, warning of 100% tariffs if the bloc moved to replace the U.S. dollar with a new currency. As a founding member of BRICS, alongside China, Russia, and Brazil, India holds significant influence within the group. However, unlike its counterparts, India is seen as less antagonistic toward the U.S., a stance that could work to its advantage.
Harsh Pant, vice president of the Observer Research Foundation, notes that India’s pro-Washington outlook makes it an outlier in BRICS. This positioning could allow New Delhi to temper discussions on de-dollarization, a goal some members have pursued to reduce reliance on the greenback. “India can use this to maneuver within BRICS, urging caution to avoid provoking the U.S.,” Pant explained.
India’s Foreign Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, recently emphasized that India has no interest in undermining the U.S. dollar, signaling its intent to maintain strong ties with Washington.
Modi and Trump: A Personal Bond
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s warm relationship with Trump could further bolster India’s position. During Trump’s first term, both leaders celebrated their rapport with high-profile events such as the “Howdy Modi” rally in Texas and the “Namaste Trump” gathering in Gujarat.
Observers like Michael Kugelman from the Wilson Center believe this personal connection could lead to smoother interactions compared to the Biden administration, particularly on contentious issues like Ukraine and human rights. Both Modi and Trump have avoided criticizing Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, aligning on calls for peace without directly condemning Vladimir Putin.
Trade: A Balancing Act
Despite this camaraderie, Trump’s transactional approach to trade could challenge India. His proposed universal 10% tariff would affect India, which enjoys a significant trade surplus with the U.S. Over the past two years, U.S. imports from India have been roughly double its exports.
India’s growing role as a manufacturing hub, particularly for companies like Apple, underscores its importance to U.S. supply chains. In the first 10 months of this year, U.S. imports from India reached $73 billion, compared to $35 billion in exports.
While the trade imbalance might spark tensions, experts believe it won’t derail relations. “Trump’s approach is always about deals—give and take,” said Pant. “India will need to adapt to ad hoc, transactional discussions rather than long-term strategies.”
A Strategic Opportunity
India’s alignment with U.S. interests, especially its cautious stance within BRICS, positions it well to navigate Trump’s second term. While occasional turbulence is expected, the shared worldview of Modi and Trump, along with India’s strategic importance, offers a foundation for mutual benefit.
As Trump takes office, India will likely continue balancing its global alliances while leveraging its unique position to strengthen ties with Washington.
