India has recently initiated diplomatic contact with the Taliban government in Afghanistan. This marks a significant shift in India’s foreign policy towards Afghanistan, reflecting a new perspective on the geopolitical realities of the region.
When the Taliban regained control of Kabul three years ago, India faced major diplomatic and strategic setbacks. Its two decades of investment in Afghanistan—such as military training, scholarships, and significant infrastructure projects like the new parliament building—were immediately stalled. The fall of Kabul also bolstered regional rivals like Pakistan and China, undermining India’s strategic position and raising new security concerns.
However, a noticeable change occurred last week. India’s top diplomat, Vikram Misri, met with the Taliban’s acting Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, in Dubai. This meeting represents the highest-level interaction between India and Afghanistan since the fall of Kabul. The Taliban have expressed interest in strengthening political and economic ties with India, describing the country as an “important regional and economic power.”
The discussions primarily focused on expanding trade and the development of Iran’s Chabahar port, which India is working on to bypass Pakistan’s Karachi and Gwadar ports.
The Significance of the Meeting
Through this meeting, New Delhi has effectively legitimized the Taliban leadership—a recognition the Taliban has long sought from the international community.
Michael Kugelman, a researcher at the Wilson Center, noted that given India’s historically unfriendly stance towards the Taliban, this represents a diplomatic victory for the group.
Since the Taliban’s resurgence, various countries have adopted different strategies. For instance, China has actively engaged with the Taliban government, focusing on security and economic interests, even appointing an ambassador to Kabul.
No country has formally recognized the Taliban government yet, but nearly 40 countries maintain some form of diplomatic or informal ties with them.
Jayant Prasad, a foreign policy expert, advises caution about India’s engagement. He notes that India has maintained contact with the Taliban through diplomats over the past three years. After closing its consulates in Afghanistan during the 1990s, India reopened them in 2002 and has sought to maintain these ties since.
In 2023, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar told Parliament that India has deep historical and cultural ties with Afghanistan. Over $3 billion has been invested in over 500 projects across Afghanistan, including roads, power infrastructure, dams, hospitals, and clinics.
The Pakistan Factor
India’s outreach to the Taliban comes amid rising tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan has accused the Taliban of harboring the Pakistan Taliban (TTP) in Afghanistan.
In July, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated that Pakistan would continue operations against terrorism in Afghanistan. Before India’s talks with the Taliban, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan, killing dozens, which the Taliban condemned as a violation of their sovereignty.
After Kabul’s fall, a top Pakistani intelligence official was among the first foreign guests to visit the Taliban government, a moment many saw as a strategic setback for India.
Kugelman argues that while Pakistan is not the sole reason for India’s engagement with the Taliban, New Delhi’s outreach represents a significant victory over Islamabad in this context.
India’s Interests
India has broader motives behind its outreach. It aims to use Afghanistan as a gateway to enhance connectivity with Central Asia—a goal hindered by Pakistan’s blockade of direct land routes. Afghanistan is seen as a critical link in achieving this objective. Cooperation with Iran on the development of the Chabahar port could further accelerate India’s plans.
Kugelman points out that closer ties with the Taliban could make it easier for India to gain Afghan support for its trade and connectivity initiatives.
Are There Risks?
Kugelman warns that the primary risk in deepening ties with the Taliban lies in the group itself. The Taliban remain a violent and oppressive force, with deep ties to international—especially Pakistani—terrorist organizations, and have shown little evidence of reform since the 1990s.
“India may hope that aligning with the Taliban could reduce the likelihood of harm to its interests. But can you really trust a group like the Taliban? This is something India will have to grapple with,” he says.
Jayant Prasad believes India’s current engagement with the Taliban carries no immediate danger, though concerns remain over the Taliban’s treatment of women’s rights. Allowing the Taliban to operate independently will not benefit the Afghan people. Establishing ties with the international community could pressure the Taliban to change their behavior.