New Delhi, January 13, 2025 – Analysts and traders have indicated that the sweeping U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil industry will make it more expensive for Moscow to sell its oil and complicate sea-borne crude exports due to restrictions on tankers. The measures, targeting Russia’s oil and gas revenues, were unveiled by President Joe Biden’s administration on Friday, aiming to give Kyiv and Donald Trump’s incoming team leverage to reach a peace deal in Ukraine.
The United States has been cautious about spooking global oil markets, but these new sanctions specifically target traders, insurers, and 183 vessels in the so-called shadow fleet, which have allowed Russia to continue selling vast volumes of oil to global markets.
Oil prices have climbed by about 6% since January 8, surging on Friday after the latest sanctions were introduced. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that the sanctions risk destabilizing global markets, but assured that Moscow would do everything possible to counteract them.
According to Morgan Stanley, the tankers sanctioned by the United States carried around 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day and 200,000 barrels per day of oil products in 2024. The Moscow-based Sinara Bank expects the discount of Russia’s flagship Urals oil blend to dated Brent to potentially rise from $8 per barrel to $20, though this may be offset by rising oil prices.
The sanctions will take effect from March, allowing Russian oil cargoes booked before January 10 to unload at ports. India, which imports over 60% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports, does not expect any disruption to its oil supply in the next two months.