In a significant shift in South Asian geopolitics, Bangladesh and Pakistan are witnessing an unprecedented thaw in their relations, a change that could have profound implications for India’s strategic interests in the region. This new era of cooperation, marked by the interim leadership of Muhammad Yunus in Bangladesh after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, has introduced a complex new chapter in regional diplomacy.
Maritime and Military Ties: The strengthening of maritime and military links between Dhaka and Islamabad is redefining South Asia’s security landscape. Since Yunus’s appointment, direct sea routes have been established between the two nations, a move not seen since the Bangladesh War of Independence in 1971. This includes the historic docking of Pakistani cargo vessels at Bangladesh’s Chittagong port. Moreover, Bangladesh has agreed to partake in Pakistan’s “Aman 2025” joint naval exercises, scheduled at Karachi port, while Pakistan will commence training Bangladesh Army personnel from February 2025.
Security Implications for India: For India, this newfound camaraderie between its neighbors raises concerns, particularly regarding the strategic Siliguri corridor, known as the “Chicken’s Neck,” a narrow strip of land vital for connecting India’s northeastern states with the rest of the country. The fear is that this corridor could be threatened by increased Pakistani influence in Bangladesh, potentially with Chinese backing, given China’s strategic interests in the region. India has responded by enhancing security along its border with Bangladesh, deploying advanced technological solutions to address vulnerabilities and prevent infiltration or smuggling.
Political Shifts and Regional Stability: The political landscape in Bangladesh has shifted dramatically since Hasina’s departure, straining India-Bangladesh relations. Previously, India had backed Hasina, who now lives in exile in India. The current interim government under Yunus has not only moved towards Pakistan but has also removed restrictions on cargo inspections from Pakistan, signaling a desire for deeper economic ties. This shift has led to speculation about Bangladesh’s future foreign policy direction, particularly concerning its alignment with either India or the Pakistan-China axis.
Expert Analyses: Geopolitical analysts like Shanthie Mariet D’Souza from the Mantraya Institute of Strategic Studies have noted that while this rapprochement might be a reaction to India’s strategic pressure, there’s a concern it could be part of a larger design to destabilize India’s northeastern states. Ajay Bisaria, former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, emphasizes that India needs to adapt to this evolving dynamic, potentially through more assertive military postures and strategic measures to counterbalance Pakistan’s growing influence in its eastern periphery.
Economic and Diplomatic Considerations: On the economic front, the reconciliation could lead to increased trade and cooperation between Bangladesh and Pakistan, possibly through the Developing 8 (D-8) forum, where both countries are members. However, the long-term effects on regional stability and India’s influence remain uncertain. The interim government’s policies, particularly on bureaucracy and public sentiment, could either solidify or undermine this new alignment.
Conclusion: As Bangladesh and Pakistan forge a new path, India is at a pivotal moment, needing to reassess its strategies to safeguard its interests. The country faces the challenge of maintaining its influence in Bangladesh while navigating a complex geopolitical environment where stability in its northeastern region is at stake. The coming months will be crucial in determining how India responds to this shifting balance of power in South Asia, balancing diplomacy, security, and regional cooperation.