Iran has identified 2025 as a critical juncture for its nuclear program, expressing deep apprehensions about the potential re-implementation of Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy following his expected return to the U.S. presidency. This policy, which Trump enacted in 2018 by pulling out of the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama, has left a lasting impact on Iran’s economic and political landscape.
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was a deal where Iran committed to restricting its nuclear activities, particularly uranium enrichment, which could be used to develop nuclear weapons, in exchange for the relief from crippling economic sanctions by the U.S. and the United Nations. The agreement was meant to ease Iran’s integration back into the global economy but was severely undermined when Trump reneged on the deal, reimposing sanctions that hit the Iranian economy hard.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, in comments made in Beijing and broadcast by Iran’s state television, emphasized the importance of 2025 for Iran’s nuclear trajectory. Although he avoided directly naming Trump, Araqchi’s statements highlighted a broader concern about the international environment becoming more hostile towards Iran. There’s a particular fear that Trump’s administration might empower Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to consider military actions against Iranian nuclear sites. Additionally, there’s an expectation of tightened U.S. sanctions, potentially focusing on Iran’s oil sector, which is a backbone of its economy.
The economic fallout from these geopolitical tensions has already begun to manifest. The Iranian rial has plummeted to new lows against the U.S. dollar, reaching an exchange rate of 820,500 rials per dollar on the unofficial market on the day of the announcement. This represents a significant drop from the previous day’s rate of 808,500 rials, as reported by currency tracking sites like Bonbast.com and bazar360.com.
The depreciation of the rial is exacerbated by an official inflation rate of approximately 35 percent. This economic distress has driven Iranians to seek refuge in hard currencies, gold, or cryptocurrencies, further devaluing the rial by about 18 percent since Trump’s election victory in November. This rush to convert assets signifies a lack of confidence in the local economy, expecting further deterioration under the pressure of renewed U.S. sanctions.
Internationally, the situation is complex. While China and Russia, both signatories to the JCPOA, have continued trading with Iran, the broader global community, especially Western nations, might follow the U.S. lead in tightening sanctions. This could lead to increased isolation for Iran, affecting everything from oil exports to banking access.
Strategically, Iran faces a dilemma: it could push forward with its nuclear program, risking further international isolation and potential military conflict, or seek to negotiate a new or restored nuclear deal under potentially less favorable terms. The coming year will likely see Iran navigating these waters carefully, balancing domestic needs with international pressures in a volatile geopolitical environment.