Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces mounting uncertainty about his political future following the abrupt resignation of Chrystia Freeland, his most senior cabinet minister and a former close ally.
Freeland, who served as both deputy prime minister and finance minister, stepped down on Monday, citing fundamental disagreements with Trudeau over spending and “the best path forward for Canada” in an open letter. She highlighted the economic threat posed by potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods under President Donald Trump’s incoming administration, warning of significant repercussions for Canada’s economy.
With questions now swirling on Parliament Hill—including within his own Liberal Party—Trudeau’s leadership is under intense scrutiny. He has several options to navigate this crisis.
- Step Down as Leader
Trudeau has led the Liberal Party since 2013 and has served as Canada’s prime minister since 2015. Under party rules, he can resign at any time. If he resigns immediately, an interim leader would be appointed until a party vote selects a new leader. Alternatively, Trudeau could remain in office until a successor is elected.
Once a new leader is chosen, Trudeau would relinquish his position and pass the reins of leadership to his replacement.
- Stay and Weather the Storm
Trudeau has given no indication he plans to resign. Following Freeland’s departure, he convened an emergency caucus meeting and reportedly told MPs—including those calling for his resignation—that he needed time to reflect.
In a holiday speech to party members, Trudeau acknowledged the challenges of political life, declaring: “In difficult times, it’s not time to stop. It’s time to be ambitious, audacious.”
However, his leadership has been under strain for months due to falling approval ratings and the Liberal Party’s poor performance in recent by-elections. A small internal rebellion emerged in October, when 24 Liberal MPs signed a letter urging him to step aside. Despite these challenges, Trudeau remains committed to running as Liberal leader in the next federal election.
Thus far, only 13 out of 153 Liberal MPs have publicly called for his resignation, with nearly half of them not seeking re-election. Under party rules, a leadership review can only take place after an election loss, giving Trudeau some breathing room.
- Risk a No-Confidence Vote
Canada’s opposition Conservative Party, which currently holds a significant lead in polls, has been pushing for a federal election by introducing no-confidence motions in the House of Commons. A successful no-confidence vote would force the government to resign or dissolve parliament, triggering an election.
To pass, a no-confidence motion requires a majority of the 338 MPs. The Liberals, holding a minority government, fall 17 seats short of a majority. So far, they have avoided defeat with support from the NDP or Bloc Québécois in exchange for advancing those parties’ priorities.
However, the political landscape is shifting. On Monday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh publicly called for Trudeau to step down, signaling a growing willingness to challenge the Liberal government. Singh’s caucus has suggested they may back a no-confidence motion in the new year if Trudeau remains in power.
- Prorogue Parliament
To stave off a no-confidence vote, Trudeau could prorogue parliament—temporarily halting all proceedings, including debates and votes, without dissolving it. While prorogation is a legitimate parliamentary tool, it is often perceived as a tactic to avoid political crises.
Trudeau last prorogued parliament in August 2020 during an ethics scandal over a contract with a charity. Similarly, former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper prorogued parliament in 2008 to avoid a no-confidence vote and buy time during a crisis.
In Harper’s case, parliament resumed a month later, and the opposition coalition had disbanded, allowing him to stay in power.
What Lies Ahead
Regardless of the path Trudeau takes, a federal election looms on the horizon. Canada is constitutionally required to hold its next election by October 2025. However, with political tensions rising, an election may come much sooner. Ultimately, Trudeau’s fate could rest in the hands of Canadian voters.