As Donald Trump prepares to return to office in January 2025, Islamabad faces growing uncertainty over the trajectory of U.S.-Pakistan ties. While some supporters of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) are hopeful that Trump will pressure the current Pakistani government to release jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan—whom Trump once called a “great friend”—others point to Trump’s inconsistent foreign policy as a source of caution. A parallel was drawn to his unfulfilled 2016 pledge to secure the release of Dr. Shakeel Afridi, the alleged CIA operative behind Osama Bin Laden’s discovery.
Under Trump’s previous tenure, U.S.-Pakistan relations reached a low point when $1.3 billion in security assistance was cut, exacerbating Islamabad’s already declining strategic importance to Washington. This trend is expected to intensify, as the U.S. focus now pivots toward countering China in the Indo-Pacific and maintaining robust ties with India. Trump’s likely prioritization of economic and military cooperation with New Delhi may heighten pressure on Pakistan over longstanding accusations of support for militant groups targeting India—charges Pakistan denies.
Strategic and Economic Headwinds for Pakistan
Afghanistan remains central to Islamabad’s foreign policy, yet Trump’s expected hardline stance on the Taliban could see the U.S. cut off humanitarian aid, intensifying crises like refugee flows and terrorism. The U.S., having disbursed over $3.2 billion in aid to Afghanistan since 2021, is the largest donor; its withdrawal would leave Pakistan to shoulder the fallout alone.
Simultaneously, Trump’s hawkish approach to China presents a dilemma for Islamabad. Key Pakistani projects, such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), are viewed as economic lifelines, yet the U.S. has criticized China’s Belt and Road Initiative and even opposed IMF bailouts that Pakistan relies on for debt relief. This stance may resurface, with figures like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz—both critical of China—potentially occupying key roles in Trump’s cabinet.
Navigating Between China and the U.S.
Pakistan will face increasing pressure to balance its dependence on both the United States and China. Washington’s growing partnership with India, combined with Trump’s focus on containing Beijing, could place Pakistan in a precarious position. If Pakistan fails to secure U.S. counterterrorism assistance—a critical resource for securing CPEC projects and Chinese personnel—Islamabad may be forced to look to Beijing for support, including Chinese troop deployments.
For Islamabad, Trump’s reelection signals turbulent waters ahead. As the U.S. prioritizes great power competition with China, Islamabad will be tasked with preserving strategic ties with both Washington and Beijing, while addressing domestic security and economic vulnerabilities.