Following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, global powers, including the United States, Turkey, and Israel, are vying to shape Syria’s future. These nations are not only sending envoys to Syria but are also striving to build ties with the rebel factions that played a significant role in Assad’s downfall.
U.S. Diplomacy and Rebel Leadership
Bashar al-Assad was ousted last Sunday after a surprise offensive by the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS, a faction listed as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and many Western nations, has since formed an interim government in Syria.
In response, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has embarked on a Middle East tour, discussing Syria’s future with regional leaders. After meeting Jordan’s King Abdullah II, he spoke with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan today.
Blinken emphasized that the new Syrian government must uphold human rights, protect minorities, and prevent Syria from becoming a haven for terrorism.
Turkey’s Early Engagement
Turkey has been quick to establish a high-level presence in Syria. On Thursday, Ibrahim Kalin, the head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization, was seen at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, the same location where HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani delivered a speech marking Assad’s ouster.
This visit coincides with concerns raised by Blinken over Turkey’s military operations against U.S.-backed Kurdish groups in Syria. These Kurdish forces, which control some territories with their own governance and military, are labeled as terrorists by Turkey. While they remained neutral during Syria’s 13-year civil war, they have now hinted at solidarity with the new Syrian government.
Israel Exploits the Chaos
Israel has also taken advantage of the turmoil in Syria. Since Assad’s fall, Israel has conducted over 500 airstrikes across Syria, targeting military installations, weapons production facilities, arsenals, warplanes, and missiles.
In a significant move, Israeli forces have seized the buffer zone in the Golan Heights and, for the first time since the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, crossed into Syrian territory.
Israel claims these operations are necessary for its security. However, there seems to be little prospect of restoring the buffer zone to its previous status. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office stated that under the 1974 ceasefire agreement, Israeli troops would remain in the region until an effective force assumes control.
The U.S. has acknowledged Israel’s security concerns but urged it not to establish a permanent presence in the buffer zone. Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed alarm over Israel’s actions and called for an end to hostilities, emphasizing the urgent need to halt violence across Syria.
Russia’s Communication with Rebel Leaders
A long-time ally of Assad, Russia had supported his regime for nearly a decade, establishing two military bases in Syria to ensure his survival. With Assad gone, Moscow is now engaging with the new Syrian government to secure these bases.
According to a report by Russian news agency Interfax, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov has initiated direct talks with HTS leaders. He reiterated that Russia’s military bases were set up at Syria’s request to combat Islamic State (IS) terrorists, who continue to pose a threat. Moscow aims to build consensus among all parties in Syria to address terrorism.
Uncertain Future
As the international community scrambles to assert influence in Syria, the nation faces a challenging road to stability. The involvement of multiple global powers with competing interests could further complicate efforts to establish a peaceful and inclusive government.
