Moscow has escalated its offensive against Ukraine, appearing to strengthen its position and influence global narratives in favor of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s isolationist policies ahead of his January 20 inauguration.
Evidence points to intensified Russian military action before and after the U.S. election on November 5, aiming to sway American public opinion and bolster Trump’s anti-aid stance toward Ukraine.
Rising Casualties and Territorial Gains
Russia’s military losses have surged as its ground offensives continue to intensify. November marked the fifth consecutive month of increased Russian casualties, with an estimated 45,680 soldiers killed or wounded, according to Britain’s Ministry of Defence. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces estimated Russian losses at 38,130 in September and 41,980 in October, with the total for the three months reaching 125,800 casualties.
Despite these heavy losses, Russia gained 2,356 square kilometers during this period, averaging daily territorial advances of 22 square kilometers in October and 27 square kilometers in November, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Escalating Airborne Attacks
Air strikes have also intensified, with Russia launching over 6,000 drones and missiles between September and November 2024—three times the number used in the preceding three months and four times that of the same period in 2023.
“This escalation reflects a clear strategy to pressure Ukraine and shape international perceptions,” said Victoria Vdovychenko, a Ukrainian defense expert.
North Korean Troops Join the Conflict
On the day of the U.S. election, North Korean troops reportedly entered active combat in Russia’s Kursk region, signaling Moscow’s access to fresh manpower to sustain its campaigns.
Retaliatory Moves Amid U.S. Arms Support
Following the defeat of Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, President Joe Biden authorized U.S. weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory. In apparent retaliation, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an Oreshnik ballistic missile into Ukraine. However, Russia’s chief of staff, Valery Gerasimov, claimed the launch was pre-planned and unrelated to U.S. actions.
Putin’s narrative portraying U.S. actions as provocations aimed to strengthen Trump’s campaign messaging. “President Trump seeks peace and an end to ‘never-ending wars,’ which aligns with the American public’s growing dissatisfaction with prolonged U.S. involvement in Ukraine,” said Trump supporter and former U.S. naval officer Demetries Andrew Grimes.
Russia’s Negotiation Demands
Putin has outlined his terms for peace talks, requiring Ukraine to withdraw from occupied regions and abandon its NATO aspirations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, has pushed for additional Western support and unconditional NATO membership. In a recent interview, he suggested a compromise, proposing NATO membership for free areas of Ukraine while addressing occupied territories later.
Ukrainian Resistance and Public Sentiment
Despite ongoing violence, most Ukrainians prefer to continue fighting until meaningful security guarantees are secured. A December poll by the New Europe Center revealed that 64.1% of Ukrainians oppose negotiations with Russia without firm commitments from Western allies, fearing that Russia would use any pause to regroup and restart the conflict.
Outlook
As Russia continues its intensified assaults, global attention remains focused on whether diplomatic solutions can emerge amid shifting U.S. political dynamics. With both sides entrenched in their positions, the road to peace appears fraught with challenges.
